Tennis · resolved market
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Rei Sakamoto
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x571834cf20db7871ccf067fb8ed0d6612a88f62baedddd06d0e4ee1200960f55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sonegoof Sonego, Sakamoto
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Sonego | 66c | 4,000$2,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.94 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Sakamoto | 1c | 3,162$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 87 | 13.8%12 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Sakamoto | 4c | 1,979$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sakamoto | 19c | 1,910$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.31 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Sakamoto | 28c | 1,873$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.81 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…57d4backed Sakamoto | 4c | 1,784$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7afb…31d7backed Sonego | 68c | 1,563$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Sonego | 66c | 1,500$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.99 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Sonego | 69c | 1,338$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Sakamoto | 34c | 1,300$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.13 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Sonego | 67c | 1,196$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.48 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sakamoto | 28c | 1,187$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.84 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Sakamoto | 19c | 1,100$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.79 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Sakamoto | 33c | 1,017$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.86 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sakamoto | 30c | 694.69$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.47 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Sakamoto | 32c | 655.5$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Sonego | 66c | 654.83$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.64 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe758…c5afbacked Sakamoto | 35c | 645.25$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Sakamoto | 20c | 555$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 269 | 21.2%57 W · 212 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Sakamoto | 6c | 467$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0792…2297backed Sakamoto | 28c | 423.61$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Sonego | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Sakamoto | 18c | 367$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Sonego | 65c | 317.57$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.15 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Sakamoto | 5c | 299.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Sakamoto | 14c | 271.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Sonego | 75c | 254.16$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Sakamoto | 34c | 250.55$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.09 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…ccb8backed Sonego | 70c | 225$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Sakamoto | 5c | 217.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 346 | 37.9%131 W · 215 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…22eabacked Sakamoto | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Sakamoto | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Sonego | 66c | 189.39$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Sonego | 63c | 168.53$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e5…293bbacked Sonego | 65c | 152.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 109 | 62.4%68 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Sonego | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 733 | 50.9%373 W · 360 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Sakamoto | 30c | 149.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Sonego | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Sakamoto | 34c | 139.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Sonego | 66c | 130.83$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Sakamoto | 33c | 127.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…f6b4backed Sakamoto | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4f…3ae6backed Sakamoto | 18c | 109.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Sakamoto | 34c | 108.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa226…5092backed Sakamoto | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…73f1backed Sonego | 74c | 95.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 165 | 58.8%97 W · 68 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b3…f062backed Sonego | 66c | 90.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4f…083fbacked Sakamoto | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Sakamoto | 34c | 80.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 530 | 58.1%308 W · 222 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Sakamoto | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 182 | 41.8%76 W · 106 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Sonego | 67c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…382ebacked Sonego | 67c | 74.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Sakamoto | 33c | 73.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Sakamoto | 32c | 62.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c60…2227backed Sakamoto | 32c | 59.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -10.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfda5…bb92backed Sonego | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 64cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Sakamoto | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1725…7405backed Sakamoto | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4291…b6bdbacked Sonego | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…4c1dbacked Sonego | 69c | 47.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf527…bb0bbacked Sakamoto | 29c | 44.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…47eebacked Sonego | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa171…23e3backed Sonego | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Sonego | 68c | 32.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbedf…8817backed Sonego | 67c | 31.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ec…da98backed Sonego | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 111 | 65.8%73 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Sakamoto | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked Sonego | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x262d…33ddbacked Sonego | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 212 | 63.7%135 W · 77 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…e7cfbacked Sonego | 69c | 29.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Sonego | 78c | 28.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…dc6abacked Sakamoto | 37c | 27.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a65…63d5backed Sonego | 68c | 27.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd00…7a45backed Sonego | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ada4backed Sonego | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…6b74backed Sonego | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e3…0ca1backed Sonego | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d11…6096backed Sonego | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe12f…24d7backed Sonego | 68c | 16.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Sonego | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hong Kong Tennis Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Rei Sakamotothis page
- Sonego vs. Sakamoto: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Sonego vs. Sakamoto: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.