Other European Leagues · resolved market
AFC Ajax vs. NEC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x573bd540c2f96df71e964a996685c82fd014ac69fb35be9eb1e9e825d48b2d47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 13c | 2,616$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.05 | 660 | 47.6%314 W · 346 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 19c | 1,006$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.69 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 17c | 787.12$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.81 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…eb28backed Over | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 15c | 342.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 75c | 326.25$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.56 | 316 | 61.7%195 W · 121 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 18c | 297.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b9…8714backed Over | 75c | 237.91$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 14c | 213.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 13c | 135$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…b7e9backed Under | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 79c | 127.76$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 191 | 46.6%89 W · 102 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Under | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 33c | 64.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…13d5backed Over | 71c | 56.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 73cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 123 | 61%75 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386b…6d36backed Under | 26c | 49.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 34c | 43.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…4747backed Under | 26c | 43.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AFC Ajax vs. NEC: O/U 1.5this page
- AFC Ajax vs. NEC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AFC Ajax vs. NEC: O/U 2.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. NEC: O/U 3.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. NEC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.