Other European Leagues · resolved market
AFC Ajax vs. NEC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13a01a6461c39fd0060964f5c372cfeaf5b84951f70065c1d99b5c5715ffca21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a73…1660backed Under | 57c | 2,400$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 42c | 1,780$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.77 | 660 | 47.6%314 W · 346 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0126…4047backed Under | 55c | 1,539$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 1,254$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.43 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…5854backed Over | 45c | 1,200$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 33c | 1,066$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.12 | 84 | 29.8%25 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 29c | 567.42$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.49 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 67c | 370$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…b935backed Over | 33c | 370$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 59c | 315.95$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 327 | 39.4%129 W · 198 L | -22.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…73ecbacked Under | 56c | 259.12$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 70c | 218.04$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.19 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 29c | 165.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 227 | 27.8%63 W · 164 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282a…2866backed Over | 35c | 140$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…f103backed Over | 44c | 129.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ff…e90ebacked Over | 44c | 129.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…651cbacked Over | 31c | 99.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 45c | 89.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Over | 32c | 87.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 266 | 53.4%142 W · 124 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 35c | 79.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 31c | 68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…29c5backed Over | 31c | 63.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2163…6d60backed Over | 23c | 51.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked Over | 43c | 45.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…6dd5backed Under | 56c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…c0c2backed Over | 44c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 66c | 35.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 42c | 33.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 33c | 31.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 45c | 31.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Over | 43c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…89a4backed Under | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e74…68c1backed Over | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 74c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 191 | 46.6%89 W · 102 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 74c | 16.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AFC Ajax vs. NEC: O/U 3.5this page
- AFC Ajax vs. NEC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AFC Ajax vs. NEC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. NEC: O/U 2.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. NEC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.