MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x575b86041397f60856abca52dc8f485b12e5350fe06a2d6dece5d17a849450d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 12,212$6,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,739.62 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 6,186$2,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,907.51 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 4,535$2,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,131.29 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 3,600$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 2,990$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435.2 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…76fabacked Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 2,832$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 69c | 1,985$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.46 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 1,985$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.46 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 1,913$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 1,904$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.95 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 1,500$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 1,185$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.8 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 1,015$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.2 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 72c | 965$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.7 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 468.18$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.18 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…726cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 295$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6b…bfacbacked Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 203.7$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 44.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…c7a4backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 40.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 38.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 27.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 27.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.