MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x575ca12f29590d622c452ee882870263934c3cfbf3a4976d640a484ea2533895
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 55c | 7,784$4,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,502.8 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 56c | 4,095$2,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,801.99 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 3,548$1,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.46 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 2,999$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 41c | 2,701$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.83 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb4…4039backed Over | 44c | 2,500$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae1…9fadbacked Over | 41c | 2,266$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.17 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Over | 46c | 2,053$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.51 | 192 | 52.6%101 W · 91 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 41c | 2,000$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.96 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Over | 41c | 1,741$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.93 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 53c | 1,408$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.82 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 30c | 1,336$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.97 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 1,208$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.47 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 44c | 1,100$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Over | 41c | 834.38$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.1 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 57c | 749.65$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.35 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 42c | 536.28$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.99 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Over | 43c | 457.79$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.85 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Under | 55c | 442.27$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.02 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Under | 57c | 427.26$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.72 | 133 | 61.7%82 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over | 43c | 410$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.3 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 57c | 402.6$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.12 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Under | 53c | 312.92$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.07 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 57c | 231.95$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.74 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 33c | 196.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 57c | 195.63$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.12 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df2…d357backed Under | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…3d64backed Under | 60c | 159$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 59c | 116.6$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 59c | 116.6$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 59c | 116.6$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 59c | 116.6$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 59c | 116.6$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 59c | 116.6$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 59c | 116.6$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 126 | 56.3%71 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 59c | 111$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 45c | 107.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Over | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa5…01b3backed Under | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Under | 57c | 80.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 42c | 70.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 57c | 68.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 43c | 68.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 42c | 61.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Under | 57c | 58.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Under | 53c | 57.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9221…9419backed Over | 42c | 57.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Under | 57c | 55.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 43c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 57c | 46.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked Under | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 128 | 64.1%82 W · 46 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Under | 56c | 42.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Under | 56c | 41.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e3…ff82backed Over | 47c | 39.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 31c | 39.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 54c | 36.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 44c | 34.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Over | 43c | 31.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc345…2c35backed Under | 60c | 28.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…6519backed Over | 43c | 27.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Over | 44c | 26.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a01…c0f7backed Over | 44c | 24.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…b584backed Under | 60c | 21.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…31e7backed Under | 57c | 20.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 61c | 19.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 57c | 18.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 191 | 57.6%110 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Under | 57c | 17.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.