MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafd37773e16dffb791c6b735a80d557ae82d6fef2d57c575684f994655785b64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 1,107$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.82 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…ca79backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 831.94$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Kansas City Royals | 54c | 658.29$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.94 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 497.12$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.36 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kansas City Royals | 42c | 398.12$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.91 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Kansas City Royals | 79c | 309.75$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Chicago White Sox | 44c | 241.6$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 205.15$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.99 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 202.25$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 200.22$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.12 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 200.22$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.12 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…080bbacked Kansas City Royals | 44c | 200.22$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.12 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 200.22$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.12 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Chicago White Sox | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox | 47c | 175.78$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 125.67$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Kansas City Royals | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Kansas City Royals | 44c | 107.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 106.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Kansas City Royals | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 94.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 94.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 94.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 94.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 94.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 94.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 126 | 56.3%71 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 94.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Kansas City Royals | 43c | 75.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 68.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 48.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 47.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago White Sox | 50c | 46.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 37.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8cb3backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 36.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 25.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd05…61d6backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 24.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 24.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f3…685cbacked Kansas City Royals | 44c | 24.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 23.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Kansas City Royals | 49c | 22.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 21.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.