NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5777ee8e2ab67d09f7dfe0c6d27b81f017ae44498a61b17eca0403b963c02a44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Timberwolves, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Wizards | 51c | 22,994$11,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,337.25 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Timberwolves | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Wizards | 50c | 14,974$7,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,486.88 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 14,882$7,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,400 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Wizards | 50c | 13,040$6,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,520 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Wizards | 51c | 7,000$3,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,429.97 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 4,213$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,069.91 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Timberwolves | 51c | 4,153$2,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,118.11 | 258 | 45%116 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Wizards | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Timberwolves | 49c | 3,667$1,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,796.92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 3,666$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Wizards | 52c | 3,515$1,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,686.99 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 3,007$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Timberwolves | 50c | 3,000$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.5 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves | 48c | 2,515$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.99 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Timberwolves | 49c | 1,643$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Timberwolves | 49c | 1,361$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.78 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Wizards | 50c | 1,130$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.63 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 1,122$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.78 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 826.1$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.05 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 50c | 820.62$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.31 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wizards | 51c | 630.51$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.95 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 53c | 499.1$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…83e5backed Timberwolves | 49c | 470$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…45d3backed Timberwolves | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Timberwolves | 48c | 211.54$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.54 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Timberwolves | 48c | 199.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a83…09f0backed Timberwolves | 50c | 196$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3e…1819backed Wizards | 52c | 181$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…b9adbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…24d1backed Wizards | 52c | 153$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c33…c0a4backed Wizards | 53c | 136$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves | 49c | 131.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Wizards | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Wizards | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…24f4backed Timberwolves | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8997…c11abacked Timberwolves | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Timberwolves | 49c | 98.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Timberwolves | 52c | 73.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Timberwolves | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Timberwolves | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…d42cbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Wizards | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Wizards | 52c | 46.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Timberwolves | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5a…b315backed Timberwolves | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5729…c366backed Timberwolves | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…581bbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbd…6ffebacked Timberwolves | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc582…a75fbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c73…36c5backed Timberwolves | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…7a09backed Timberwolves | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Wizards | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Wizards | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 182 | 46.7%85 W · 97 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe800…0588backed Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-16.5)this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-15.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-17.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.