NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f97c95bf9b4c25980003dbb13477dca9593110e971b5cb7ba90f3811d81d732
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Timberwolves, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Timberwolves | 55c | 20,000$11,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,999.99 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Wizards | 45c | 15,697$7,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,633.32 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 57c | 3,700$2,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,579.22 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Timberwolves | 55c | 3,187$1,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,753 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Wizards | 45c | 2,758$1,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.96 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Wizards | 47c | 1,302$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 258 | 45%116 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Wizards | 47c | 1,193$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.17 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Timberwolves | 54c | 1,110$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.4 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Wizards | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Wizards | 48c | 1,028$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.56 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Timberwolves | 55c | 999$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.45 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Timberwolves | 10c | 999$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Wizards | 45c | 798.16$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.99 | 267 | 55.8%149 W · 118 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Wizards | 45c | 625.91$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.25 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Wizards | 46c | 602.52$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.36 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Timberwolves | 54c | 542.58$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.99 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 529.07$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Wizards | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Wizards | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Timberwolves | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…732fbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 306$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.24 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Wizards | 45c | 299.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.99 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards | 45c | 296$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.8 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Timberwolves | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a04…0bd1backed Timberwolves | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Wizards | 45c | 235.56$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 260 | 34.6%90 W · 170 L | -20.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Wizards | 47c | 214.73$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.81 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Timberwolves | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 180$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Timberwolves | 54c | 178.28$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.27 | 160 | 61.3%98 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Timberwolves | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wizards | 46c | 171.56$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wizards | 47c | 137$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.19 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f1…1744backed Timberwolves | 37c | 129.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Timberwolves | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae42…d021backed Timberwolves | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Timberwolves | 55c | 108.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Timberwolves | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5e…271bbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Wizards | 45c | 95.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…9790backed Timberwolves | 54c | 93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 133 | 58.6%78 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53f…b4c8backed Timberwolves | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Timberwolves | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…03afbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 73.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x003b…4da0backed Timberwolves | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…5735backed Timberwolves | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aab…f908backed Timberwolves | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Wizards | 45c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Wizards | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Timberwolves | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards | 48c | 48.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…a811backed Timberwolves | 54c | 46.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…28e4backed Timberwolves | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555e…6bb8backed Timberwolves | 55c | 45.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Timberwolves | 53c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Wizards | 45c | 38.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Timberwolves | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c5…0decbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2d…356bbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 47cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-15.5)this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-16.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-17.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.