NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd94491e5b0ae8944f456fc1967f8ca03b2961927bf7de8f282fd84ccd44d661d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 54c | 12,762$6,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,891.41 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 46c | 3,333$1,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.82 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 46c | 3,210$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,733.4 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 2,022$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.88 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 1,943$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.48 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…d023backed Over | 58c | 1,216$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.2 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 46c | 1,091$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.15 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Under | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 46c | 700$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Under | 43c | 499.97$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.98 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 46c | 380.57$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.58 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 46c | 290$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.6 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…0123backed Under | 58c | 212.78$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.78 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 156$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.48 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 44c | 154$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.24 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 40c | 142.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.91 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Over | 57c | 119.42$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Over | 60c | 110.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Over | 54c | 107.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 26c | 81.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Over | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ae…6bc8backed Under | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…8f51backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 40c | 40.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…f9a1backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 350 | 52%182 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c3…49edbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…db1bbacked Under | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 163 | 21.5%35 W · 128 L | -20.3wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 42c | 28.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Over | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…f29abacked Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc76…d76dbacked Under | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51bd…bc56backed Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 46c | 24.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa798…4240backed Over | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked Over | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-15.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-16.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-17.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.