NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a60bbff444b868acb24df3a13247204f698adb4c663bcca2dbbb077a22eace4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 55c | 900$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 45c | 900$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 829.53$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.14 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 52c | 580$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.6 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 47c | 252.98$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.92 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…732fbacked Over | 54c | 204$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.16 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e88…7c99backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f89…8ed0backed Over | 54c | 186.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Under | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…37b4backed Over | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 96.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 48c | 95.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Over | 52c | 76.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 47c | 71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Over | 53c | 56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 48c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 48c | 28.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcca…da80backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-15.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-16.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-17.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.