Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-08-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x577b6db43b5420e713ac810c67533d3abb537833a001ec6bf0800e612d64f864
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 39c | 2,991$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.37 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 22c | 2,652$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,077.86 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 22c | 2,096$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640.01 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 75c | 1,561$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.71 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 13c | 1,047$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.84 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 18c | 456.55$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.15 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 79c | 369.89$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.79 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 23c | 350.61$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 15c | 328$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.8 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Yes | 66c | 303.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 69cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 67c | 298.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.57 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…4976backed Yes | 18c | 277.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Yes | 65c | 243.72$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Yes | 76c | 230.26$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8c…6307backed Yes | 27c | 222.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +200.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed Yes | 58c | 199.57$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +77%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 24c | 177$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.52 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 18c | 139.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.35 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 19c | 102.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1239…f34cbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed No | 46c | 69.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 57c | 50.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 76c | 42.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…5efdbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa19e…4ab5backed Yes | 63c | 26.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-08-23?this page
- Will Bayer Leverkusen vs. 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?No won
- Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.