Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs. 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb39965eab745adfdf019cccd681c69f170a345b818f28e0ae40d7440af0fd98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 72c | 2,627$1,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.9 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 29c | 2,172$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 32c | 898$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.34 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 74c | 839.41$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 24c | 606.29$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.23 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 73c | 347.29$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +77%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 76c | 229.85$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 22c | 183$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d99…24f0backed Yes | 28c | 181.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…4976backed Yes | 32c | 128.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 22c | 121$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…a4edbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…c622backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 73c | 58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 21c | 55.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 79c | 41.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf8…dfb0backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayer Leverkusen vs. 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?this page
- Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-08-23?Yes won
- Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.