MLB · resolved market
Orioles vs. Twins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x577fec0e2b17ba0ef788e3c5a6616fcf7eb1e1ee9275777be3b6240e85b0382a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Twinsof Orioles, Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Orioles | 40c | 9,871$3,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,986.24 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Twins | 59c | 8,745$5,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,542.08 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Orioles | 50c | 5,872$2,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,917.1 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Orioles | 38c | 4,358$1,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,676.76 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Twins | 60c | 4,344$2,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,737.42 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Twins | 44c | 3,861$1,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,150.51 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ba…d879backed Twins | 68c | 3,777$2,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.17 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Twins | 40c | 3,556$1,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130.02 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Orioles | 40c | 2,156$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.33 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Orioles | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Orioles | 41c | 1,700$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.99 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Orioles | 40c | 1,119$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…a0e7backed Twins | 68c | 1,115$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.86 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Twins | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Orioles | 39c | 871$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.69 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Twins | 57c | 865.68$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.05 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Twins | 62c | 804.66$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.66 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Orioles | 40c | 700$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.28 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Orioles | 39c | 665.77$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.65 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Orioles | 39c | 600$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Twins | 60c | 418.32$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.33 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Twins | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Orioles | 43c | 359.63$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.47 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Twins | 41c | 352.82$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.82 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked Orioles | 29c | 337$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Orioles | 42c | 332.82$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.78 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Twins | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f7…c948backed Orioles | 78c | 327.33$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Orioles | 48c | 325$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.45 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Orioles | 58c | 303.6$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.57 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Orioles | 6c | 265$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Orioles | 40c | 175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Twins | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…5f97backed Twins | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Twins | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Twins | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Orioles | 40c | 131.07$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Orioles | 42c | 121$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe7…4b7ebacked Twins | 59c | 105.74$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Twins | 51c | 98.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Twins | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Twins | 62c | 81.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Orioles | 48c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Twins | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Orioles | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Twins | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Twins | 53c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Orioles | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Twins | 60c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Orioles | 40c | 38.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Twins | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Twins | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5efc…ee80backed Orioles | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Twins | 60c | 28.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Orioles | 50c | 26.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Twins | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Twins | 49c | 22.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Twins | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x142c…1098backed Twins | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Twins | 61c | 16.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.