NFL · resolved market
Browns vs. Raiders: O/U 35.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x578c26dac38ecfb5107327be9a75e69e025501fffec0989f2a1142c2757ada76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 14,622$6,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,749.92 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 53c | 12,141$6,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,434.58 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Over | 53c | 8,703$4,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,612.36 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…0a15backed Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 47c | 1,355$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.15 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 1,082$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.46 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Under | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 903.85$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.71 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 361.67$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.07 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f7…b542backed Under | 48c | 291.67$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Over | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 47c | 214.31$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.73 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Over | 53c | 209.56$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.07 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe08…10ebbacked Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 54c | 165$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 47c | 52.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Browns vs. Raiders: O/U 35.5this page
- Browns vs. RaidersBrowns won
- Browns vs. Raiders: O/U 36.5Under won
- Browns vs. Raiders: O/U 37.5Under won
- Browns vs. Raiders: O/U 38.5Under won
- Spread: Raiders (-2.5)Browns won
- Spread: Raiders (-3.5)Browns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.