NFL · resolved market
Browns vs. Raiders: O/U 36.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62462bffedc63557b8ee864d035e165f018fd5e2ad7314225078ccc45591d90b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 51c | 22,677$11,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,111.51 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,799.99 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Over | 49c | 11,988$5,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,874 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Under | 51c | 6,042$3,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,970.76 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 48c | 2,315$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.12 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 52c | 2,234$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.32 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Over | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.09 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Under | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 1,110$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.11 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 53c | 1,038$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.86 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 51c | 803.92$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.92 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64cc…ad9dbacked Under | 51c | 725$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.25 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Under | 51c | 600$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Over | 50c | 520$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 51c | 395$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.55 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 215.89$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.1 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 50c | 118$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…50c5backed Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3f…4f9cbacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 50c | 59.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…3a67backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Browns vs. Raiders: O/U 36.5this page
- Browns vs. RaidersBrowns won
- Browns vs. Raiders: O/U 35.5Under won
- Browns vs. Raiders: O/U 37.5Under won
- Browns vs. Raiders: O/U 38.5Under won
- Spread: Raiders (-2.5)Browns won
- Spread: Raiders (-3.5)Browns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.