NFL · resolved market
Spread: Raiders (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17bd39ff73c0f66ea4a0155b8f3ffa14aae0d37dd7b4e58065ad39b13d9d7e6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brownsof Raiders, Browns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raiders | 56c | 14,954$8,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,379.15 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Browns | 45c | 8,495$3,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,672.33 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Browns | 43c | 8,171$3,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,663.87 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Raiders | 55c | 783.78$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.08 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Browns | 43c | 265$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.05 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Raiders | 57c | 265$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.05 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Raiders | 57c | 232$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Raiders | 61c | 229$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.99 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Raiders | 55c | 131$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Raiders | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Browns | 39c | 99.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Raiders | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Raiders | 60c | 46.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Browns | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…dbe9backed Raiders | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Browns | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116b…adfdbacked Raiders | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…cf80backed Raiders | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Raiders | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raiders (-2.5)this page
- Browns vs. RaidersBrowns won
- Browns vs. Raiders: O/U 35.5Under won
- Browns vs. Raiders: O/U 36.5Under won
- Browns vs. Raiders: O/U 37.5Under won
- Browns vs. Raiders: O/U 38.5Under won
- Spread: Raiders (-3.5)Browns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.