Olympics · resolved market
Will Regan Smith (USA) win Gold in 100m Women's Backstroke?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x579e4651cb8436942b2f3c0b5593e521ffd70622321d6a9acd6eb0f2301095fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc714…3a42backed Yes | 1c | 16,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0003…857abacked Yes | 55c | 13,849$7,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,648.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…e6a5backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 2cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked No | 44c | 8,511$3,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,786.31 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Yes | 49c | 1,650$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.5 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked No | 47c | 1,500$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.38 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…7407backed Yes | 54c | 1,473$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.32 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 45c | 1,197$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.43 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e3…d066backed Yes | 58c | 884.76$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed No | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad79…7abbbacked Yes | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5289…e110backed Yes | 55c | 372.86$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Yes | 55c | 364.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d50…0c7dbacked Yes | 54c | 332.99$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…552fbacked No | 49c | 306.28$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.28 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1180…8e39backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…0a62backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38b4…15fdbacked Yes | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…549ebacked Yes | 55c | 109.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc07…1026backed No | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…28ccbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 46c | 79.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…c3d4backed No | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2e…3df0backed Yes | 56c | 50.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca0f…d330backed No | 47c | 45.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0235…dd07backed Yes | 54c | 41.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…cc09backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…df30backed Yes | 54c | 38.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1629…a0acbacked No | 50c | 37.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e90…7680backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e33…88bbbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…daf0backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 60cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2b…8fa0backed Yes | 55c | 34.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 55c | 30.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…fbe9backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…0991backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked No | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Regan Smith (USA) win Gold in 100m Women's Backstroke?this page
- Will Katharine Berkoff (USA) win Gold in 100m Women's Backstroke?No won
- Will Kaylee McKeowan (AUS) win Gold in 100m Women's Backstroke?Yes won
- Will Kylie Masse (CAN) win Gold in 100m Women's Backstroke?No won
- Will Mollie O'Callaghan (AUS) win Gold in 100m Women's Backstroke?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.