MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57a022ee4bc65de1a5da9220527a4e491fa59f4ff9110d03304b00a7b9f7884b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 5,952$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,452.38 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa285…f906backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 4,167$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 2,417$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.08 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Miami Marlins | 49c | 2,043$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.98 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 39c | 1,509$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.23 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 1,379$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 1,129$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.82 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 67c | 803.1$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.29 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 705.18$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.06 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c76…fcc2backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 655.58$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 653.02$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.81 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 497.5$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.1 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 454.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.35 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals | 37c | 423$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.51 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 418.64$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.19 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 254.85$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.03 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 231.17$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.24 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 210$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.7 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Miami Marlins | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 190$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 167$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.53 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 19c | 137.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 112.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 111.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 103.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 94.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 61.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 60.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 56.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 56.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 54.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 50.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Miami Marlins | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 45.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Washington Nationals | 59c | 39.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Washington Nationals | 70c | 38.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…f7a1backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 25.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Washington Nationals | 53c | 21.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.