MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x680177e6331f7fb03101d281a48895e2ca5af4cb373136454ee6fa182316464b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 34c | 18,601$6,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,324.08 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 67c | 8,286$5,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,715.69 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 68c | 3,088$2,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.51 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 2,749$1,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.49 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 66c | 2,217$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.67 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 68c | 2,059$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.82 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 66c | 1,420$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.31 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 23c | 637.67$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.67 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 20c | 511.39$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 382.72$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 67c | 263.81$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.92 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 68c | 152.21$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 74c | 125.06$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Under | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Under | 67c | 76.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Over | 27c | 71.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 29c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 71c | 53.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 34c | 49.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x050d…2b12backed Under | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 71c | 34.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b8…4a59backed Under | 72c | 31.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 34c | 30.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…f7a1backed Under | 66c | 20.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 68c | 20.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed Over | 51c | 19.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.