Australian A League · resolved market
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57b6d2dab27cf38320e5d6419af9c6209b76e40c585f39af9975cb5fffbb6ae8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 70c | 3,244$2,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.69 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 31c | 2,591$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.82 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 2,268$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.17 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 46c | 1,851$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.1 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Under | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 30c | 933.33$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 32c | 625$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 69c | 355.09$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.08 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 32c | 337.5$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 32c | 275.74$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.24 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…3a9dbacked Under | 76c | 204.79$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 70c | 155$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 8c | 154.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.39 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +6.7wins | +0.42per pick | 14cpaid | +367.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 27c | 139.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 135.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 30c | 132.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 35c | 131.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 42c | 119.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 62c | 112.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 36c | 98.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 78c | 88.47$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Under | 79c | 85.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 30c | 74.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae3…8753backed Over | 45c | 67.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 72c | 52.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…1094backed Under | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 33c | 31.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Under | 79c | 31.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 69c | 23.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 69c | 16.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Brisbane Roar FC (-1.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-1.5)Brisbane Roar FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.