Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57cc63633b1bd9f7f18c283e0d59bb776b90ba8b680cba0f18ed4f467e1a79e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,824 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x426d…3d61backed Yes | 22c | 3,829$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,889$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.47 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed No | 80c | 1,580$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.27 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b0…1b3cbacked No | 78c | 1,284$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495a…0154backed No | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfa…f537backed No | 78c | 1,263$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 800$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.86 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 1c | 715.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 25c | 657.81$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.23 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed No | 80c | 494.16$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.71 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 79c | 450.93$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.58 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 423.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 21c | 393.04$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 15c | 297.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 22c | 273.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 76c | 264.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 263.22$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 78c | 242.44$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 237.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 17c | 233$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 225.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 21c | 219.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 217.57$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4727…405dbacked Yes | 20c | 193.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 9c | 191.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 9c | 186.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 19c | 185$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 184.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e0…cb5fbacked Yes | 6c | 183.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 10c | 181.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 77c | 169.93$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked No | 79c | 164.57$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked Yes | 26c | 158.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 73c | 147.52$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 142.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 14c | 142.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 132$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 27c | 120.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 69c | 116$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 113.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 11c | 112.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 79c | 112.12$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 76c | 108.94$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…ded6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 95.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…467bbacked Yes | 32c | 94.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 16c | 94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87eb…582fbacked Yes | 23c | 93.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 18c | 91.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 78c | 79.95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 16c | 61.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a8…cca8backed Yes | 24c | 60.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 76c | 59.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 55.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed No | 74c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 22c | 50.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 22c | 48.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 23c | 43.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 77c | 38.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 72c | 37.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 34c | 35.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 31.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…0e5dbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 80c | 29.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 80c | 25.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 79c | 25.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 78c | 21.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2c…0746backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…577ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 19.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf45a…854bbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 16.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No | 80c | 13.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 78c | 13.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 43°F or below on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 62°F or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.