Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72af22381b0558f4dfe9b5690b270fdac587bd0011e8b8bdbd62b2632a89d7c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,562 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 8c | 3,737$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.83 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 3c | 2,892$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 8c | 1,800$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.78 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,329$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.12 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 1,306$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 4c | 1,137$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 10c | 999.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 6c | 671.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 17c | 578.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 7c | 538.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 3c | 492.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 485.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked Yes | 3c | 468.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 11c | 390.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 5c | 362.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 5c | 347.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 313.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…bebabacked Yes | 11c | 297.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…78a6backed Yes | 7c | 294.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 79c | 278.36$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 17c | 270.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 15c | 260.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…b3ffbacked Yes | 8c | 248.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 9c | 233$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 200.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 21c | 191.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0043…dadebacked Yes | 8c | 189.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 166.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 80c | 150.14$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 16c | 143.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 18c | 142.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 16c | 125.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 26c | 107.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 100.85$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 13c | 99.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 99.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 13c | 99.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 23c | 91.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…577ebacked Yes | 21c | 82.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 15c | 70.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…fbdebacked Yes | 27c | 65.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…0e5dbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01fc…498abacked Yes | 28c | 54.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 53.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 27c | 52.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 22c | 52.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c6…f2dcbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed No | 79c | 37.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 37.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 73c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…4cf3backed No | 74c | 26.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 78c | 24.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 75c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2c…0746backed No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 79c | 16.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 14.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 78c | 13.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 43°F or below on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 62°F or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.