Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b4a04f619b916d5471bc65069fd218930844c85d87a569a632c62f78e782224
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,996 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02f3…94cbbacked No | 70c | 9,000$6,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700.3 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…0dc8backed Yes | 30c | 9,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054c…e19fbacked Yes | 31c | 3,211$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb6…6662backed Yes | 31c | 3,117$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…e0fbbacked Yes | 32c | 3,107$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…9cd2backed Yes | 33c | 2,681$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…3479backed Yes | 34c | 2,663$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…66c6backed Yes | 34c | 2,637$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5b…f5ffbacked Yes | 31c | 2,635$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff4…1c4ebacked Yes | 34c | 2,623$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…8869backed Yes | 34c | 2,618$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…11bbbacked Yes | 33c | 2,550$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…9354backed Yes | 31c | 2,548$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf90a…7bd3backed No | 67c | 1,382$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd2…4393backed No | 66c | 1,362$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6062…206cbacked No | 66c | 1,354$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…f8bebacked No | 69c | 1,328$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ce…11dbbacked No | 66c | 1,326$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf45c…e0babacked No | 66c | 1,316$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba7b…09b0backed No | 66c | 1,309$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…fedcbacked No | 69c | 1,307$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6d…402cbacked No | 66c | 1,302$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…496bbacked No | 67c | 1,300$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…42bbbacked No | 67c | 1,299$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…8415backed No | 69c | 1,298$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9380…9220backed No | 66c | 1,297$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff3…abacbacked No | 66c | 1,275$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96fa…c568backed No | 67c | 1,250$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb746…7253backed No | 69c | 1,250$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…6059backed No | 69c | 1,109$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…ec4abacked No | 69c | 1,100$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1db…9f0cbacked No | 69c | 1,070$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f8…cd3bbacked No | 68c | 1,056$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3d…5b11backed No | 68c | 1,042$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6a…2b97backed No | 69c | 1,024$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c8…749cbacked No | 69c | 1,024$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a0…9973backed No | 68c | 1,009$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4607…0589backed No | 69c | 1,002$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 35c | 834.71$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.2 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 65c | 631.96$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.51 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 31c | 587$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.7 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 3c | 400.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 399.86$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 25c | 351.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.13 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 13c | 345.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…b3ffbacked Yes | 38c | 330$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.85 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed No | 64c | 299.27$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.02 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 34c | 293.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 69c | 267.7$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.63 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 5c | 249.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 31c | 233$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.09 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bd…fb6cbacked Yes | 7c | 225.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 198.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 69c | 195.95$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 19c | 188.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 16c | 179.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 66c | 169.76$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 27c | 163.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 37c | 154.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 12c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 147.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 18c | 142.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 137$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 132$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 15c | 129.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 36c | 124.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x751f…b7d4backed Yes | 33c | 118.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 33c | 117.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 27c | 111.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 110.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 43c | 110$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…e722backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 37c | 99.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…ded6backed Yes | 21c | 99.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 94.23$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 56c | 88.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 35c | 83.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 44c | 83.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 82.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 33c | 76.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 42c | 70.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 70.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…ab4cbacked Yes | 27c | 69.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 43c | 67.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 29c | 63.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 61.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 62c | 60.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 60.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 68c | 58.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 34c | 58.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 34c | 57.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 45c | 55.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 52c | 53.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87eb…582fbacked Yes | 49c | 52.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 51.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 33c | 51.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 43°F or below on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 62°F or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.