Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57f4ad4240d089b72ed7a487fd0894c6fedd2fe6c2eed269261525f1ef9024db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,519 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a79…c875backed No | 0c | 8,145$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…9e96backed Yes | 26c | 3,701$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,738.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 32c | 2,208$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,510.67 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 54c | 1,505$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.32 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a0…86c7backed No | 74c | 1,237$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a3…8ee5backed No | 74c | 1,234$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6977…47edbacked No | 74c | 1,230$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 77c | 1,170$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.99 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 10c | 999.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 32c | 976.35$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.2 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 74c | 678.29$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.62 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 8c | 593.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 24c | 536.09$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.09 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 29c | 480.1$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.99 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 62c | 420.73$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.17 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 3c | 394.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 41c | 375.7$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.87 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 4c | 321.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…b3ffbacked Yes | 26c | 307.13$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.53 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 16c | 290$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.3 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 64c | 288.92$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.53 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed No | 71c | 281.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 77c | 276.57$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 272.7$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 33c | 267.49$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.94 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 24c | 259.94$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.65 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 22c | 238$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 20c | 234.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.72 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 27c | 233$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.74 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 43c | 232.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 23c | 232.14$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.46 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 229.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.05 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 228.83$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.19 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 222.72$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 39c | 221.79$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 23c | 209.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.78 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 5c | 201.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 26c | 195.31$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.77 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 12c | 190$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.3 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 16c | 180.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 172.7$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa322…dd03backed Yes | 29c | 171.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.11 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 169.19$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 162.54$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 28c | 160$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.7 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 19c | 157.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.24 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 54c | 156.12$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 154.01$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 71c | 152.6$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 151.79$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.32 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 141.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 17c | 140.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.78 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 30c | 137.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 43c | 136$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 76c | 133.45$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.15 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 132$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 130.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.57 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 20c | 128.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.04 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 12c | 122.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.28 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 29c | 121.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 75c | 120.73$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.55 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…bebabacked Yes | 29c | 119.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 31c | 116.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.1 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 75c | 108.86$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 20c | 106.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.24 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 73c | 104.1$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…115fbacked No | 52c | 103.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 10c | 101.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.23 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 30c | 100.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…ded6backed Yes | 33c | 100.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd113…7fe7backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 26c | 96.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.93 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 25c | 95.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.56 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 66c | 88.95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 75c | 86.52$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 77c | 84.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…577ebacked Yes | 27c | 82.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…877cbacked No | 74c | 81.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed Yes | 26c | 79.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 60c | 77.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 73c | 76.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 20c | 70.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.53 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 51c | 70.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 25c | 67.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 70c | 66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 31c | 64.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 33c | 62.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 43c | 61.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 59c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 70c | 59.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 42c | 57.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc059…722cbacked Yes | 28c | 55.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961c…b284backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +292.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…78a6backed Yes | 29c | 53.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 43°F or below on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 62°F or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.