Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57cda2832d6010c366ca0ac754a86eaeda0e985b59e9e3510fc802c65c019da3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,677 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ff7…0357backed Yes | 1c | 1,095$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,016$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.77 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 712.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 11c | 378.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 361.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 7c | 325.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 8c | 299.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 10c | 208.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…997ebacked Yes | 10c | 195.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 17c | 160$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…d44cbacked Yes | 11c | 158.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…eab8backed Yes | 7c | 156.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…a382backed Yes | 20c | 145.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 8c | 140.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 139.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…8a65backed Yes | 11c | 137.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 11c | 132.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed No | 80c | 127.8$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe28e…2cc0backed Yes | 12c | 127$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 11c | 124.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 11c | 122.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 13c | 101.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 14c | 95.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 16c | 84.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 25c | 82.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 19c | 73.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a15…e269backed Yes | 14c | 70.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 49.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 31.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed No | 77c | 31.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 72c | 23.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…e412backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 72c | 16.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4514…48fdbacked No | 80c | 15.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a7…d389backed No | 71c | 14.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.