Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96ab0102a7aa3001ab632c2a58adbff1ef390f7210997ad5a745f7e923750da9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,926 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,621$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 0c | 6,600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,205$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 23c | 1,916$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.55 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 1,093 | 29.6%324 W · 769 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 1,267$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.11 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 79c | 1,008$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.28 | 631 | 60.2%380 W · 251 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 79c | 809.99$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.2 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 764.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 1,730 | 18%311 W · 1,419 L | +73.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 20c | 307.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 741 | 22.9%170 W · 571 L | -32.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 61c | 275.98$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.13 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…7badbacked Yes | 42c | 241.82$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 980 | 13.9%136 W · 844 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 33c | 188.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 67c | 149.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 144.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 70c | 142.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 12c | 130.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 411 | 12.4%51 W · 360 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 9c | 129.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 30c | 123.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 38c | 117$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 13c | 102.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8744…3d64backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa6…6cb8backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 96.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 94.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 931 | 34%317 W · 614 L | +53.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb9…f642backed Yes | 47c | 87.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 35c | 84.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 575 | 27.8%160 W · 415 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 61c | 82.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92ae…a7b0backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 32c | 75.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 69c | 70.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 46c | 69.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 35c | 65.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 353 | 48.7%172 W · 181 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,857 | 25.4%472 W · 1,385 L | +133.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 46c | 64.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 64.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…e412backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 32c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 32c | 50.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,829 | 42.6%780 W · 1,049 L | +51.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 22c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…8a65backed Yes | 41c | 48.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 42.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 34c | 39.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2,272 | 14.8%336 W · 1,936 L | +52.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 62c | 35.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 34.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 2,318 | 58.9%1,365 W · 953 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 33.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ea…7d79backed No | 62c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 34c | 30.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 37c | 29.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 65c | 27.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 63c | 22.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 69c | 18.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 67c | 17.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc266…04a1backed No | 63c | 17.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4514…48fdbacked No | 69c | 16.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 69c | 15.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.