Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57cfeeb0bc404c706b71822ff6cb7a77c2f86ed50dbcf6c8e0589ab6ab1fc21d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, paiN Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,370 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked paiN Gaming | 32c | 5,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.99 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed paiN Gaming | 5c | 2,823$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.15 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed paiN Gaming | 24c | 2,809$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…88d4backed paiN Gaming | 10c | 2,554$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.36 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Spirit | 72c | 2,447$1,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.8 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…12bdbacked paiN Gaming | 29c | 1,999$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.15 | 181 | 56.4%102 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Team Spirit | 76c | 1,665$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.52 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked paiN Gaming | 10c | 1,661$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.85 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…0a00backed Team Spirit | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.79 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked paiN Gaming | 31c | 1,276$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed paiN Gaming | 21c | 1,116$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.8 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Spirit | 74c | 1,081$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.37 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed Team Spirit | 79c | 1,045$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.36 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked paiN Gaming | 35c | 854$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0acfbacked Team Spirit | 79c | 800$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 183 | 62.8%115 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked paiN Gaming | 12c | 785.47$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.37 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Team Spirit | 70c | 430$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1942…2c75backed paiN Gaming | 23c | 426.96$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Spirit | 70c | 404.23$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.33 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Team Spirit | 76c | 328.95$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Team Spirit | 74c | 260$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed paiN Gaming | 8c | 258.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccb…bbd7backed paiN Gaming | 25c | 196.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed paiN Gaming | 24c | 191.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Spirit | 75c | 189.01$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…3855backed Team Spirit | 67c | 119.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 173 | 37.6%65 W · 108 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc8…67f7backed Team Spirit | 76c | 117.67$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 191 | 62.8%120 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb635…bef0backed Team Spirit | 72c | 116.92$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 303 | 36.6%111 W · 192 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed paiN Gaming | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad9…7bf6backed paiN Gaming | 11c | 94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa157…8641backed paiN Gaming | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…7807backed paiN Gaming | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7713…daf0backed Team Spirit | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Team Spirit | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Team Spirit | 66c | 46.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed paiN Gaming | 25c | 40.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c50…ad9cbacked Team Spirit | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Team Spirit | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Team Spirit | 73c | 19.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18a…ed4bbacked Team Spirit | 79c | 17.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63a5…1fbfbacked Team Spirit | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs paiN Gaming (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group BTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.