TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Team Spirit, paiN Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,754

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,754 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1776…e557backed paiN Gaming37c6,958$2,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,548.452450%12 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked paiN Gaming17c6,352$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.1213020%26 W · 104 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Team Spirit75c5,721$4,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,432.3734468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Spirit71c4,829$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.3386949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c29…afadbacked paiN Gaming21c4,576$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.36150.8%31 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Spirit69c3,267$2,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.5251751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit64c2,213$1,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.361,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed paiN Gaming10c1,249$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.228540%34 W · 51 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked Team Spirit75c1,172$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.4918362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked paiN Gaming38c1,112$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.8938049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5818…44a3backed paiN Gaming37c900$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.05728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed paiN Gaming13c785.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Spirit63c784.81$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.622,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1942…2c75backed paiN Gaming26c776.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005339.6%21 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x672d…dbd7backed paiN Gaming36c508.81$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.8540047.5%190 W · 210 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed paiN Gaming39c507.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20046049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x63a2…5bc1backed paiN Gaming20c504.4$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8812638.9%49 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked paiN Gaming30c485$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.560646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Spirit78c468.92$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.421,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc33…aa3ebacked paiN Gaming36c369.52$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.237560%45 W · 30 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+18.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed paiN Gaming27c366.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10026453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Spirit64c345.6$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.121,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed paiN Gaming24c331.84$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.022,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a75…fc33backed paiN Gaming36c330$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked paiN Gaming38c321$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.9839660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Team Spirit64c314.34$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.1618746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93c8…adffbacked Team Spirit67c309.36$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1027851.3%40 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked paiN Gaming38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11442145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed paiN Gaming36c282.95$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.8646649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked paiN Gaming37c279.59$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4599844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed paiN Gaming37c268$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Team Spirit77c259.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7455457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf138…c953backed paiN Gaming40c250.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010134.7%35 W · 66 L-11.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Spirit72c230$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.21,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Team Spirit80c228.35$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6736759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked paiN Gaming21c219.03$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4548539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked paiN Gaming11c208.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0464123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed paiN Gaming35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7060251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Team Spirit69c172.86$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.666250%31 W · 31 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8979…9428backed Team Spirit65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.858661.6%53 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d19…296ebacked Team Spirit64c153.75$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.993171%22 W · 9 L+7.4wins+0.24per pick47cpaid+44.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed paiN Gaming34c150$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5192561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a0b…c3cbbacked Team Spirit68c146.64$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.64812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick40cpaid-81.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe625…94c0backed paiN Gaming41c146.34$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe791…cbc0backed paiN Gaming34c145.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.551030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa43a…5cf4backed Team Spirit75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.33475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed paiN Gaming37c131.81$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8872637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed paiN Gaming36c124$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6433549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked paiN Gaming32c120$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.414744.9%66 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Spirit72c116.56$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6486659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed paiN Gaming38c106.74$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.564837.5%18 W · 30 L-7.1wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-22.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4ab9…361dbacked paiN Gaming19c105$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205230.8%16 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed paiN Gaming36c101.66$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.745061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b05…b133backed Team Spirit74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2611254.5%61 W · 51 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0702…e5eabacked paiN Gaming28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2740745.5%185 W · 222 L-1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29f8…ffa9backed paiN Gaming30c99.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.815033.3%50 W · 100 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7bef…be32backed paiN Gaming27c93.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2513449.3%66 W · 68 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00fb…4442backed Team Spirit63c84.74$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.498763.2%55 W · 32 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7e0…0d8abacked paiN Gaming37c82.65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5826859%158 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed Team Spirit72c79.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.426661.7%164 W · 102 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed paiN Gaming19c71.59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.572035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x63e1…802abacked Team Spirit66c70.05$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.824325.6%11 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b89…1069backed Team Spirit73c69.58$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7915653.8%84 W · 72 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed paiN Gaming22c68.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1586451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa157…8641backed paiN Gaming32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206131.1%19 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5524…2f3cbacked paiN Gaming36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186844.1%30 W · 38 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed paiN Gaming20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…8e7ebacked Team Spirit55c29.34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.233554.6%183 W · 152 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcadb…a190backed Team Spirit80c25.74$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.15862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Team Spirit79c25.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1723653%125 W · 111 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x81fe…4089backed Team Spirit60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1013262.9%83 W · 49 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Team Spirit77c24.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7522456.3%126 W · 98 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e2d…fb60backed Team Spirit64c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6450444%222 W · 282 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e47…bdbfbacked Team Spirit65c23.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0714963.1%94 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c50…ad9cbacked Team Spirit78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.353158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd36…873bbacked Team Spirit58c19.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.440539.3%159 W · 246 L-0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd30…9a01backed Team Spirit60c19.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816054.4%87 W · 73 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1620…227bbacked Team Spirit65c18.46$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4613762.8%86 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb358…2723backed Team Spirit63c17.78$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Team Spirit71c15.08$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3314142.6%60 W · 81 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Team Spirit76c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.5515450%77 W · 77 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1912…def8backed Team Spirit68c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.814656.2%82 W · 64 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.