TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Asuncion: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Juan Carlos Prado

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Juan Pablo Varillasof Juan Pablo Varillas, Juan Carlos Prado
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$151,474

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,474 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x85d7…0501backed Juan Pablo Varillas48c109,465$52,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,916.573073.3%22 W · 8 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+25.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Juan Carlos Prado50c48,777$24,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,275.612,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Juan Carlos Prado51c32,419$16,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,413.111,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Juan Carlos Prado45c27,155$12,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,286.847,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Juan Carlos Prado39c4,003$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.756,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa08…d98abacked Juan Pablo Varillas78c2,817$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.0724962.2%155 W · 94 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Juan Carlos Prado38c2,146$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.911,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Juan Pablo Varillas78c1,832$1,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.9880938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc14f…7d8dbacked Juan Pablo Varillas56c1,600$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.981866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe204…0ca8backed Juan Pablo Varillas45c1,524$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.432100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+80%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Juan Carlos Prado12c1,355$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.072,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea9b…2be5backed Juan Carlos Prado1c1,344$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2611758.1%68 W · 49 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Juan Carlos Prado51c1,026$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.264,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Juan Pablo Varillas55c973$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.1219241.1%79 W · 113 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb69f…d51cbacked Juan Carlos Prado11c937.07$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.2614752.4%77 W · 70 L+0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Juan Carlos Prado44c749.99$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3303,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61ad…915dbacked Juan Pablo Varillas74c674.38$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.473767.6%25 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Juan Pablo Varillas55c629.63$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.11,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaffd…c3f5backed Juan Carlos Prado7c628.63$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442556%14 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Juan Carlos Prado37c578.98$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.0150731.2%158 W · 349 L-41.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-36.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Juan Carlos Prado44c512$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.841,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9869…1a45backed Juan Carlos Prado44c448.8$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.4710156.4%57 W · 44 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Juan Carlos Prado23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,13027.9%315 W · 815 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc76a…c5c9backed Juan Carlos Prado13c400$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Juan Carlos Prado45c370.51$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.4855660.3%335 W · 221 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Juan Carlos Prado26c343.74$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.912,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Juan Carlos Prado34c340$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0699044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Juan Carlos Prado37c330$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.361,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed Juan Carlos Prado53c300$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16051445.5%234 W · 280 L-2.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Juan Carlos Prado53c296.58$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1435032.3%113 W · 237 L-9.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Juan Pablo Varillas55c272.72$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.722,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Juan Carlos Prado45c246.5$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.935250%26 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Juan Pablo Varillas71c233.36$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.469,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2fb…610cbacked Juan Carlos Prado44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001822.2%4 W · 14 L-4.3wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-66.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3d78…a4ccbacked Juan Carlos Prado44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033055.8%184 W · 146 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7307…7d23backed Juan Pablo Varillas49c224.4$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.173863.2%24 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Juan Carlos Prado28c222.12$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.756,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc55…a069backed Juan Carlos Prado37c220.45$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.966550.8%33 W · 32 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b71…80ecbacked Juan Carlos Prado45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9021149.8%105 W · 106 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Juan Carlos Prado37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.56443.8%28 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Juan Carlos Prado44c199$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.567,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e3d…bbfabacked Juan Carlos Prado37c192.84$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.856553.8%35 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf709…c75cbacked Juan Pablo Varillas44c177.6$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.453470.6%24 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Juan Carlos Prado50c163.31$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3992548.8%451 W · 474 L+20.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed Juan Carlos Prado52c158.93$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4130844.5%137 W · 171 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Juan Carlos Prado44c151.44$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6329952.2%156 W · 143 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Juan Pablo Varillas56c150$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa631…a9cabacked Juan Carlos Prado44c150$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Juan Carlos Prado44c144.63$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.170148.2%338 W · 363 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa24…b2b4backed Juan Carlos Prado39c104.05$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.587549.3%37 W · 38 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x087f…2ebfbacked Juan Carlos Prado55c103.82$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.976969.6%48 W · 21 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Juan Carlos Prado37c102.49$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3326349%129 W · 134 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91c0…e4ccbacked Juan Pablo Varillas51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4951539.8%205 W · 310 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x983a…ac6bbacked Juan Carlos Prado45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4513847.8%66 W · 72 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69a6…4b30backed Juan Carlos Prado44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446344.4%28 W · 35 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Juan Carlos Prado43c99.53$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.061,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed Juan Carlos Prado30c96.04$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1644349%217 W · 226 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84c7…bea7backed Juan Pablo Varillas53c94.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9666452.3%347 W · 317 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41c8…424fbacked Juan Pablo Varillas49c83.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.912958.1%75 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Juan Carlos Prado45c80.79$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.027,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Juan Carlos Prado26c74.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.23,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xb5b9…948abacked Juan Pablo Varillas56c71.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4642358.6%248 W · 175 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Juan Pablo Varillas78c67.71$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.736,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Juan Carlos Prado53c67.5$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.842,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Juan Carlos Prado20c60.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.434,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Juan Pablo Varillas55c60.6$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.271,97346.3%914 W · 1,059 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6404…2a20backed Juan Carlos Prado52c58.02$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.094650%23 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Juan Carlos Prado43c55.78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9757252.3%299 W · 273 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x852d…c3dfbacked Juan Pablo Varillas68c44.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1210664.2%68 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad06…b132backed Juan Carlos Prado50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207639.5%30 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbebf…9baebacked Juan Carlos Prado51c39.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090854.5%495 W · 413 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Juan Carlos Prado45c32.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.853544.1%236 W · 299 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Juan Carlos Prado45c32.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.451,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd88a…1eefbacked Juan Carlos Prado45c31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9554434.2%186 W · 358 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee75…f59abacked Juan Carlos Prado55c27.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.793557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb9…eb4ebacked Juan Pablo Varillas44c25.97$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc11d…421bbacked Juan Pablo Varillas62c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4310967%73 W · 36 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bba…6596backed Juan Carlos Prado44c22.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106956.5%39 W · 30 L+0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.