Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57de79e1052d00afc7328abd594b49de51b2b9374682842b4f18957bafcf7ee5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 204 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e9e…648fbacked Yes | 0c | 21,999$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…6b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 7,271$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.54 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 58c | 3,053$1,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.05 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95ac…4232backed Yes | 38c | 2,620$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af7…828dbacked Yes | 38c | 2,600$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc740…522fbacked Yes | 34c | 1,572$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d15…e61fbacked Yes | 75c | 1,473$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342d…0815backed No | 62c | 1,320$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf05…f022backed No | 62c | 1,320$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb7…fc8cbacked No | 62c | 1,300$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…cc1ebacked No | 62c | 1,280$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 39c | 1,052$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.56 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 33c | 676.51$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.89 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 36c | 660.91$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.71 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 35c | 649.19$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.86 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 54c | 618.51$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.92 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…ce95backed Yes | 53c | 561.04$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.92 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed No | 29c | 542$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.19 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 46c | 470.77$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.71 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 37c | 445.83$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.89 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 36c | 379.35$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.45 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…76f9backed No | 76c | 374.71$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 65c | 352.77$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.47 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked No | 63c | 344.89$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.3 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f36…0c01backed No | 51c | 328.99$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.85 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 68c | 313.97$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.8 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 55c | 313.57$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.99 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b0…f9a4backed Yes | 39c | 311.34$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 38c | 287.53$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.16 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 59c | 271.72$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.37 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 31c | 255.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 230.45$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 38c | 230$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 51c | 227.34$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.39 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 55c | 221.98$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.99 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf649…5bb6backed Yes | 60c | 218.52$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.48 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dd…8a80backed Yes | 34c | 215.76$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 41c | 199.29$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 62c | 197.21$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.46 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…7c44backed Yes | 31c | 196.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 45c | 180.31$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 57c | 178.52$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.42 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 37c | 171.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 41c | 170.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.25 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3052…af2cbacked Yes | 45c | 169.63$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 64c | 156.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 155.45$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…facdbacked Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 150$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked Yes | 56c | 143.56$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.05 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f2…e1dcbacked Yes | 66c | 143.55$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…609fbacked Yes | 40c | 140$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 72c | 135.33$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6de8backed Yes | 59c | 135.04$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 39c | 133.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.37 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 68c | 132.96$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.41 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 39c | 129.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.08 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 122.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 115.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1727…3179backed Yes | 36c | 114.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3f…3578backed No | 48c | 114.05$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 32c | 112.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…ab15backed Yes | 67c | 110.14$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 66c | 109.81$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1499…96bdbacked Yes | 41c | 108.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 51c | 105.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 38c | 103.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…5170backed Yes | 37c | 101.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc548…c22ebacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 38c | 99.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.58 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed Yes | 12c | 93.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 32c | 93.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2096…bc4bbacked No | 70c | 89.74$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed No | 50c | 88.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…7742backed Yes | 36c | 84.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 39c | 83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 50c | 82.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…a7d6backed Yes | 49c | 82.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 51c | 81.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe7…67dcbacked Yes | 32c | 81.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 52c | 80.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 45c | 78.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d18…63cabacked Yes | 49c | 78.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 64c | 78.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…c197backed Yes | 42c | 78.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 59c | 78.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 59c | 73.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0409…457ebacked No | 50c | 72.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 25°F or below on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.