TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,406
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,890

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,406 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8093…b208backed Yes36c11,000$3,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,040.451421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-57.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dbe…6351backed No64c11,000$7,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,043.741513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-68.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d15…e61fbacked Yes74c1,435$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fef…5a63backed No5c1,118$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No2c1,073$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3854143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes36c849.3$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.731,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes27c821.88$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.772,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes74c712.99$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.5543238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc740…522fbacked Yes40c708.66$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.41475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+34.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b4d…6b6ebacked No11c569.92$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.51911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-71.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes63c425.58$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.148331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed No3c370.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.434131.7%13 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes35c337.03$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.5938840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No45c317.27$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.4412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1726…1ad4backed No68c315.91$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.966753.7%36 W · 31 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8845…06bcbacked Yes33c270.74$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.439135.2%32 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes74c250.34$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.715843.1%25 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd375…af86backed Yes42c250$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.571127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick17cpaid-46%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03c4…6536backed No60c250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.81119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-87.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes31c217.59$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.1517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedc3…023dbacked Yes37c193.39$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.152470.8%17 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+50.1%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked No60c192.46$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9231170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No64c186.69$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.0932157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No56c181.12$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5359742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes28c170$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.298738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes27c165.11$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.481,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc3fa…ad6bbacked Yes29c163.96$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.171931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes29c163.28$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.4821235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x095b…6f34backed Yes30c158.35$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.579447.9%45 W · 49 L+10.7wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3c00…1c78backed Yes28c156.65$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.5115330.7%47 W · 106 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes32c150$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.96,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e53…14e7backed Yes41c132.61$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.6415027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes42c131.32$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7434319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes42c126.26$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3312230.3%37 W · 85 L-11.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No44c125$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4535843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No16c120.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.736819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes32c114.96$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.377038.6%27 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes60c110.9$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.211,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes34c108.5$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.7754143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No68c106.89$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.63,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No66c106.53$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No53c100.67$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9858422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4122…6c07backed Yes63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+53.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6442469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.5228737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc548…c22ebacked Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3458349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6405…7d19backed No31c99.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.28438.1%32 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes31c99.56$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.985549.1%27 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No64c96.76$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.941,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes37c96.28$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.468,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94e6…0a73backed Yes29c94.95$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.077841%32 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Yes60c93.3$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.325453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes78c90$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9881234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd084…27eabacked Yes31c85.63$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.082339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34e4…e1e1backed Yes31c84.75$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.582138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes25c84.75$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.561,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes22c80.32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfced…03d9backed Yes35c80$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3310141.6%42 W · 59 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+82%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d18…63cabacked No62c78.9$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.772142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No67c78.45$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.283,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes37c72.85$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0329642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6be5…c197backed Yes44c72.52$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.521233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes33c72.08$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3572726.4%192 W · 535 L+63.8wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7bb5…3bf4backed No57c71.66$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419656.3%54 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefd0…7e95backed No63c71.3$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.923751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.244553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No76c67.11$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5132652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf649…5bb6backed Yes47c66.75$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.132725.9%7 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-41.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x09ae…a7d6backed Yes32c65.97$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.542030%6 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f87…9120backed Yes26c62.69$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.491533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1672…03f1backed Yes27c61$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.535635.7%20 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes32c60.3$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9233726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd396…609fbacked Yes35c60$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.82020%4 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes25c60$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4593034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfde…4006backed Yes23c59.98$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.19714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No68c59.77$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6452245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef98…7926backed No68c58.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0842315.4%65 W · 358 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No68c58$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.441,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3d9…b26bbacked Yes39c58$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.61457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4968…cda7backed Yes33c56.8$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.295147.1%24 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No69c55.03$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8391967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddf7…9684backed Yes34c52.02$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.33812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-63.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes26c51$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7411044.5%49 W · 61 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa301…b4efbacked Yes63c50.26$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.415360.4%32 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.520838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes41c47$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8314736.1%53 W · 94 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x034f…ca6bbacked No62c44.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.593658.3%21 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2676…13ddbacked No60c42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes55c41.45$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5761659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked Yes62c41.3$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5211359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x05c8…092abacked Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3036123%83 W · 278 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a71…fd47backed Yes35c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+78.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed No75c39.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3018727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No59c39.39$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1898160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No59c38.49$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.691,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed No65c38.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2529056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb05c…f02fbacked Yes31c34.75$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.871566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes47c34.59$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.381,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Yes74c33.51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.814548.9%22 W · 23 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+50.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.