Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa61652b46ee21b37b67d9cf3fe1b3cd23454cf548139f4254afdfac52f6de80b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8093…b208backed Yes | 36c | 11,000$3,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,040.45 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…6351backed No | 64c | 11,000$7,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,043.74 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d15…e61fbacked Yes | 74c | 1,435$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fef…5a63backed No | 5c | 1,118$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 2c | 1,073$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 36c | 849.3$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.73 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 27c | 821.88$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.77 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 74c | 712.99$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.55 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc740…522fbacked Yes | 40c | 708.66$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…6b6ebacked No | 11c | 569.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 63c | 425.58$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.1 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed No | 3c | 370.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 35c | 337.03$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.59 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 317.27$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed No | 68c | 315.91$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.96 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 33c | 270.74$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.43 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 74c | 250.34$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd375…af86backed Yes | 42c | 250$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.57 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c4…6536backed No | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.81 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 217.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…023dbacked Yes | 37c | 193.39$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.15 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 60c | 192.46$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.92 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 64c | 186.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.09 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 56c | 181.12$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.53 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 28c | 170$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 27c | 165.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.48 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…ad6bbacked Yes | 29c | 163.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.17 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 29c | 163.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.48 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 30c | 158.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.57 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 28c | 156.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.51 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 41c | 132.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.64 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 42c | 131.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.74 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 42c | 126.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 44c | 125$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 16c | 120.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 32c | 114.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 60c | 110.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.21 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 34c | 108.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 68c | 106.89$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 66c | 106.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 53c | 100.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc548…c22ebacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes | 31c | 99.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 64c | 96.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 96.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 29c | 94.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 60c | 93.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked Yes | 31c | 85.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34e4…e1e1backed Yes | 31c | 84.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 84.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 22c | 80.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d18…63cabacked No | 62c | 78.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 78.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 37c | 72.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…c197backed Yes | 44c | 72.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 33c | 72.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 57c | 71.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…7e95backed No | 63c | 71.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 76c | 67.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf649…5bb6backed Yes | 47c | 66.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…a7d6backed Yes | 32c | 65.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f87…9120backed Yes | 26c | 62.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 27c | 61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 32c | 60.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…609fbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…4006backed Yes | 23c | 59.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 68c | 59.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed No | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 68c | 58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d9…b26bbacked Yes | 39c | 58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 33c | 56.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 69c | 55.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…9684backed Yes | 34c | 52.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 26c | 51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked Yes | 63c | 50.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 41c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 62c | 44.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2676…13ddbacked No | 60c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 55c | 41.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 62c | 41.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a71…fd47backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed No | 75c | 39.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 59c | 39.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 59c | 38.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb05c…f02fbacked Yes | 31c | 34.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 47c | 34.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Yes | 74c | 33.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 25°F or below on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.