Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Kosuke Ogura vs Keisuke Saitoh
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57e690b493080bdd30f05710698ef1a83289d8d1570782483e56cc9a7ea0f2a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Keisuke Saitohof Kosuke Ogura, Keisuke Saitoh
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Kosuke Ogura | 30c | 1,359$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.21 | 197 | 40.6%80 W · 117 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Keisuke Saitoh | 65c | 652.47$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.46 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Kosuke Ogura | 39c | 527.95$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.09 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Keisuke Saitoh | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 521 | 52.2%272 W · 249 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4741…6af1backed Kosuke Ogura | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Kosuke Ogura | 24c | 148$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Keisuke Saitoh | 71c | 139$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e67…dad6backed Keisuke Saitoh | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…9433backed Kosuke Ogura | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…0a0bbacked Kosuke Ogura | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5f…c343backed Kosuke Ogura | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…558bbacked Kosuke Ogura | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50dc…b61abacked Keisuke Saitoh | 77c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 275 | 30.2%83 W · 192 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01f…e8fbbacked Keisuke Saitoh | 77c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cb…fbe2backed Kosuke Ogura | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4869…b7abbacked Kosuke Ogura | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…c971backed Kosuke Ogura | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Keisuke Saitoh | 80c | 71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Kosuke Ogura | 37c | 64.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2c…be40backed Kosuke Ogura | 26c | 56.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Keisuke Saitoh | 63c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Keisuke Saitoh | 66c | 54.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Keisuke Saitoh | 72c | 48.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Kosuke Ogura | 38c | 37.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Kosuke Ogura | 37c | 31.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d70…ae13backed Keisuke Saitoh | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edb…00a9backed Keisuke Saitoh | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | -21.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.