Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57fa63d644be7610293b3897f3225a85b78e44cb54086aa905e1e238b4ca5ac1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17be…0dc8backed No | 0c | 40,200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…f211backed No | 0c | 36,800$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 15c | 612.85$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.09 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 401.29$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.95 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 223.82$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 77c | 215.93$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.21 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 17c | 173.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 36c | 168.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.96 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 139.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.94 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 21c | 133.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 62c | 117.17$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.64 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 36c | 108.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 74c | 100.28$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 45c | 98.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 97.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 35c | 97.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 90.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 43c | 86.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 78c | 82.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 60c | 81.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked No | 32c | 73.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 51c | 56.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 61c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ef…59a3backed No | 22c | 54.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked No | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 45c | 47.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4671…b5eebacked No | 78c | 41.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 62c | 41.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 72c | 41.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 29c | 40.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x692b…4532backed No | 58c | 35.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 61c | 31.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53b8…0b06backed Yes | 80c | 29.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 57c | 27.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed No | 51c | 26.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 51c | 23.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 62c | 23.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…60fcbacked Yes | 76c | 21.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 72c | 19.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 76c | 19.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 69c | 17.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…7e00backed Yes | 79c | 14.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.