NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x580c47d32296299fd9385a95d45dc670abc09fc9c0a47326974c9c9caa4ab9db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canadiensof Lightning, Canadiens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lightning | 36c | 2,146$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.38 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Canadiens | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Canadiens | 63c | 572.43$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.8 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 37c | 551.7$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.57 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Lightning | 37c | 378.38$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Canadiens | 63c | 377.83$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.8 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Lightning | 34c | 271$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.14 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Canadiens | 66c | 250$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Canadiens | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Lightning | 24c | 180$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lightning | 41c | 169.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Canadiens | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Canadiens | 65c | 159$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Lightning | 37c | 100.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Canadiens | 63c | 72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Lightning | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Lightning | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Lightning | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Canadiens | 64c | 43.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Canadiens | 63c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Canadiens | 63c | 40.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Canadiens | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Canadiens | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 194 | 42.8%83 W · 111 L | -12.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Canadiens | 64c | 32.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42bf…30f7backed Lightning | 42c | 30.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Lightning | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Canadiens | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Canadiens | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Canadiens | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Canadiens | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Canadiens vs. LightningLightning won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.