TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Canadiens vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Canadiens, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,036,413
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,075,186

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,036,413 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 956 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Canadiens44c201,764$88,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,558.6767051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33f6…e0debacked Lightning56c200,005$112,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88,002.231668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+40.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xff7a…4c4cbacked Canadiens45c71,192$31,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,976.624247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Lightning57c66,313$37,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,514.4213553.3%72 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Canadiens44c41,000$18,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,04022550.2%113 W · 112 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Canadiens43c32,641$14,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,035.7248549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Lightning56c30,000$16,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,20025449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9165…5b98backed Lightning57c28,208$16,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,129.4311955.5%66 W · 53 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Canadiens43c26,904$11,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,677.511,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning54c13,408$7,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,141.881,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Lightning56c12,500$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,499.9832946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lightning61c10,121$6,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,979.131,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lightning56c9,686$5,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,260.151,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa553…ef40backed Lightning77c9,347$7,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,182.37580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+51.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Lightning57c9,298$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,998.2550049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Lightning57c9,239$5,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,001.1888151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Canadiens1c9,230$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.992174.1%9 W · 208 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Canadiens25c6,921$1,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,707.632,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Canadiens0c6,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105858.6%34 W · 24 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Canadiens0c6,142$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.027450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Canadiens0c6,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Lightning56c6,000$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,639.994440.9%18 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Lightning56c5,897$3,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,583.661,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Canadiens6c5,216$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.3729412.9%38 W · 256 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+45.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Canadiens28c5,087$1,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,407.956163.9%39 W · 22 L+8.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Canadiens19c4,753$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.5329926.4%79 W · 220 L-20.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-35.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Lightning63c4,667$2,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,731.995853.4%31 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Canadiens43c4,651$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00060337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Canadiens43c4,647$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00029651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Lightning56c4,375$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92524654.5%134 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2d7…da62backed Canadiens35c4,308$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.6118840.4%76 W · 112 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Canadiens43c4,162$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.6639047.9%187 W · 203 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ba…3061backed Canadiens14c4,090$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5711250%6 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe3…e0fdbacked Lightning58c4,013$2,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,665.4619051.1%97 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Canadiens43c4,000$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,72022546.2%104 W · 121 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Lightning51c4,000$2,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,95622150.2%111 W · 110 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Canadiens30c3,647$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.161,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Canadiens19c3,437$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.8838738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b97…5e12backed Canadiens24c3,333$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.571361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.22per pick39cpaid+689.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Lightning73c3,203$2,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.81,10752%576 W · 531 L+63.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Canadiens43c3,000$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2901,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Canadiens43c3,000$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,29028652.4%150 W · 136 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked Lightning56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.976555.4%36 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Lightning57c2,997$1,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,296.1120552.2%107 W · 98 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4cf…2d96backed Canadiens4c2,793$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.611450%7 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Canadiens4c2,402$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9754418%98 W · 446 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44b9…0598backed Canadiens43c2,326$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Canadiens45c2,235$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.568252.4%43 W · 39 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Lightning57c2,222$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.4675251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Lightning59c2,005$1,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.073951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24da…9561backed Canadiens43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8602740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9397…ceb4backed Canadiens43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8602352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Canadiens43c1,974$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.170249%344 W · 358 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb0d…187bbacked Canadiens43c1,850$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2731…43b9backed Lightning57c1,850$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Canadiens51c1,830$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.0657157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8a0…35b6backed Canadiens22c1,828$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.196058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Lightning58c1,800$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.1954047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd868…c947backed Canadiens43c1,800$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8423…3563backed Lightning57c1,800$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4417…c795backed Canadiens44c1,761$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.81250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd71a…b9f6backed Lightning57c1,761$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.2785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.35per pick51cpaid+66.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Lightning57c1,710$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.1726955.8%150 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Canadiens44c1,705$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75043743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Lightning59c1,695$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.9511252.7%59 W · 53 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Lightning74c1,582$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.6895049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14e3…ce1fbacked Canadiens44c1,539$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.1513655.1%75 W · 61 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Canadiens43c1,519$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.0572847.9%349 W · 379 L-1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Canadiens3c1,462$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8519548.2%94 W · 101 L+0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Lightning57c1,404$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.5144551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Lightning75c1,351$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.011,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Canadiens37c1,346$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.359550.5%48 W · 47 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Canadiens43c1,307$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.872,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Canadiens43c1,300$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55953337.5%200 W · 333 L-0.6wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3679…2bacbacked Canadiens20c1,278$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.218952.8%47 W · 42 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Canadiens38c1,212$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.072,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeabf…655cbacked Lightning56c1,200$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5282254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11bf…f579backed Lightning56c1,200$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5281553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb572…c062backed Canadiens44c1,200$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5283847.4%18 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x055e…8828backed Lightning56c1,200$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5284346.5%20 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa72f…8edbbacked Canadiens44c1,200$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5284454.5%24 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea3d…3fdbbacked Canadiens44c1,200$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5285044%22 W · 28 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-15.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5082…6adabacked Lightning56c1,200$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5281258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391e…122dbacked Lightning56c1,200$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5281250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08f7…8db4backed Canadiens44c1,200$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5283852.6%20 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf596…617fbacked Canadiens44c1,200$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5283336.4%12 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-21.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x37c5…57a3backed Lightning56c1,195$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.82060%12 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13b3…fd84backed Lightning56c1,195$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.81668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb260…3c13backed Lightning56c1,195$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.81172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+41.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e55…e1e7backed Lightning56c1,195$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.81275%9 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+49.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f5f…278ebacked Lightning56c1,195$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.81145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3be…ae01backed Canadiens44c1,195$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.84447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc9…3c99backed Lightning56c1,195$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.82070%14 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+50.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xff62…2ee2backed Canadiens44c1,195$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.81241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick60cpaid-31.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xea38…eab9backed Canadiens44c1,195$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.82152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1bd…4549backed Canadiens44c1,195$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.84548.9%22 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf57e…8c7bbacked Canadiens44c1,195$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.83647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb05…8e62backed Lightning56c1,195$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.82568%17 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+44.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b70…a1a9backed Canadiens44c1,195$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.82657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb007…cbd7backed Canadiens44c1,195$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.84938.8%19 W · 30 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.