NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf52e1cdc7f20e0f7a66f2e78541511c296da00a4d4f1b3c4d1756f2d1861f7fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 43c | 2,326$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 603 | 37.5%226 W · 377 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 57c | 1,310$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.3 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Under | 42c | 865$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.3 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee39…59bfbacked Over | 59c | 512.66$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.19 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 63cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 57c | 212.91$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.53 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 59c | 186.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…4cb8backed Under | 64c | 170$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 33c | 99.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 49c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 41c | 48.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 48c | 47.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Over | 41c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 59c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over | 57c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Over | 57c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 40c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Over | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Over | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5this page
- Canadiens vs. LightningLightning won
- Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.