Us Politics · resolved market
Martin Nowak out as Harvard professor by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5833e26bbc4203499087bc7375a442074652542c196ff811b177e44faece82f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb59f…4a98backed Yes | 10c | 1,269$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 13c | 718$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 442.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x179d…e18bbacked Yes | 15c | 410.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 11c | 321$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes | 14c | 306$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…f6e0backed Yes | 31c | 215.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…ccaabacked Yes | 14c | 158.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 147.48$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 75c | 130$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 25c | 119.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0d…43bfbacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 64c | 65.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…fa3abacked Yes | 15c | 65.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022b…377ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 69c | 59.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf74f…57f6backed Yes | 35c | 28.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…4a1cbacked No | 74c | 26.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed No | 78c | 25.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…59a4backed No | 78c | 25.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.