La Liga · resolved market
Valencia vs. Real Betis: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x583402e63895a051c4fc2c3d3d9b368a85aa078fdff39edb0f68e6ded76304e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 51c | 12,536$6,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,108.09 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 51c | 11,892$6,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,064.68 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x243b…64f2backed Under | 49c | 10,090$4,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,145.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bec…129abacked Over | 51c | 10,090$5,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,145.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Over | 1c | 3,333$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +15.1wins | +0.30per pick | 14cpaid | +663.6%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 2,014$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.71 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 1,379$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.48 | 280 | 55%154 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 32c | 1,073$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.94 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…6ed7backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 33c | 637.94$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.92 | 138 | 24.6%34 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 63c | 513.55$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.99 | 171 | 55%94 W · 77 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef7…1e3dbacked Under | 50c | 361.86$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.93 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 46c | 310.17$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.78 | 223 | 57%127 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Over | 29c | 260.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Over | 51c | 215.69$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d75…8e95backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 42c | 185.38$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 350 | 54%189 W · 161 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Over | 49c | 132.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Over | 51c | 97.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Over | 52c | 96.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 290 | 53.4%155 W · 135 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 49c | 73.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Under | 71c | 52.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…3e60backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 139 | 58.3%81 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 47c | 45.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x634b…363bbacked Over | 33c | 45.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…39a6backed Over | 43c | 43.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 50c | 41.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 210 | 51.9%109 W · 101 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 276 | 52.5%145 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 317 | 51.1%162 W · 155 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb3…8b32backed Over | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 58cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 290 | 53.4%155 W · 135 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valencia vs. Real Betis: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Real Betis (-0.5)Valencia won
- Valencia vs. Real Betis: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.