Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5848dd5e370c82f57ee679ff1adcefdbb00afa8a1c9e3fe1f2d25a5bf36365f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inner Circleof Inner Circle, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1d4…38d6backed AVULUS | 1c | 5,555$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Inner Circle | 53c | 3,051$1,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.11 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae17…b10dbacked AVULUS | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.84 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf022…1ae9backed AVULUS | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed AVULUS | 43c | 849.21$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Inner Circle | 53c | 475.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.44 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Inner Circle | 51c | 393.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.68 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked AVULUS | 34c | 343.96$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.03 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62f2…07f8backed AVULUS | 36c | 280.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed AVULUS | 52c | 245.4$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.61 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a69…aec0backed AVULUS | 38c | 220.65$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked AVULUS | 47c | 186.61$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.31 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Inner Circle | 41c | 170$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6438…255bbacked AVULUS | 61c | 163.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed AVULUS | 45c | 138.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…d06dbacked Inner Circle | 56c | 110.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed AVULUS | 35c | 108.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed AVULUS | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked AVULUS | 43c | 89.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed AVULUS | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed Inner Circle | 65c | 86.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed AVULUS | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Inner Circle | 53c | 55.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Inner Circle | 55c | 51.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed AVULUS | 45c | 50.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Inner Circle | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda12…38d6backed Inner Circle | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed AVULUS | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Inner Circle | 61c | 40.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac2…b76ebacked Inner Circle | 65c | 30.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed AVULUS | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Inner Circle | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…ddb2backed Inner Circle | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Inner Circle | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed AVULUS | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs AVULUS (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group AInner Circle won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs AVULUS - Game 2 WinnerAVULUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.