Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs AVULUS (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb124762327d72dbb5c2da887adc05f48fa64041cfa1c43b86556f67b9c01768a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inner Circleof Inner Circle, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1d4…38d6backed AVULUS | 2c | 5,744$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.38 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…ee57backed AVULUS | 53c | 3,487$1,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843.79 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AVULUS | 41c | 3,242$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked AVULUS | 50c | 3,037$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.63 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked Inner Circle | 47c | 2,698$1,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.13 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae17…b10dbacked Inner Circle | 59c | 2,266$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.39 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Inner Circle | 47c | 2,128$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.61 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08bc…f368backed AVULUS | 49c | 2,031$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Inner Circle | 49c | 1,792$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.79 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed Inner Circle | 51c | 1,752$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.61 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef4c…0d07backed AVULUS | 49c | 1,536$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…477cbacked Inner Circle | 65c | 1,504$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed AVULUS | 48c | 1,479$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.19 | 176 | 51.1%90 W · 86 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked AVULUS | 56c | 1,246$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb76f…8536backed AVULUS | 57c | 1,166$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.13 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Inner Circle | 48c | 1,143$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.87 | 254 | 44.5%113 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9f…5764backed Inner Circle | 51c | 1,110$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241a…eb06backed AVULUS | 49c | 1,110$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6895…6e89backed Inner Circle | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd329…514fbacked AVULUS | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b49…9c03backed AVULUS | 46c | 1,060$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x455e…1fcfbacked AVULUS | 46c | 1,050$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Inner Circle | 54c | 1,000$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.36 | 206 | 42.2%87 W · 119 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62f2…07f8backed AVULUS | 56c | 805.36$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.87 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…faa5backed Inner Circle | 51c | 770$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a43…4e6bbacked Inner Circle | 51c | 766$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked AVULUS | 35c | 706.9$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.92 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Inner Circle | 51c | 703.88$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.29 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c3…fcfcbacked Inner Circle | 51c | 688$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…0788backed Inner Circle | 51c | 677$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…72dcbacked Inner Circle | 51c | 666$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Inner Circle | 63c | 657.02$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.56 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Inner Circle | 51c | 650$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.48 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…e4debacked Inner Circle | 54c | 650$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…1d29backed AVULUS | 58c | 625.2$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Inner Circle | 52c | 575.86$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.86 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Inner Circle | 74c | 568.8$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.34 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…b7bbbacked Inner Circle | 54c | 560$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Inner Circle | 56c | 544.36$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.05 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e0…68a8backed AVULUS | 57c | 506.77$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…9f02backed Inner Circle | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed AVULUS | 33c | 419.52$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.86 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed AVULUS | 10c | 401.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed AVULUS | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed9d…517dbacked Inner Circle | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb39…129fbacked AVULUS | 5c | 393.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed AVULUS | 23c | 363.02$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.93 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe625…94c0backed Inner Circle | 57c | 351.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.4 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked AVULUS | 59c | 346.51$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.14 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Inner Circle | 51c | 344.77$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.77 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed AVULUS | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b8…50d8backed Inner Circle | 74c | 336.65$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.79 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3d…e051backed AVULUS | 6c | 330$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Inner Circle | 64c | 326.44$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.98 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Inner Circle | 62c | 321.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.09 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Inner Circle | 63c | 286.59$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.59 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed AVULUS | 51c | 274.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.25 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Inner Circle | 73c | 273.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 63cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…f114backed AVULUS | 25c | 261.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 151 | 31.8%48 W · 103 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Inner Circle | 51c | 257.91$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.91 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Inner Circle | 78c | 257.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked AVULUS | 34c | 239.84$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed AVULUS | 44c | 238$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.72 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d79…899abacked Inner Circle | 47c | 230.08$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed AVULUS | 39c | 221.82$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.16 | 138 | 27.5%38 W · 100 L | -15.0wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd15e…db59backed AVULUS | 51c | 220.77$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.33 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x730e…fca0backed AVULUS | 40c | 210$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda12…38d6backed Inner Circle | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed AVULUS | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed AVULUS | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed AVULUS | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed AVULUS | 58c | 179.31$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked AVULUS | 56c | 177.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed AVULUS | 57c | 174.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2489…60f1backed Inner Circle | 60c | 166.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…ca6bbacked AVULUS | 56c | 161.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked AVULUS | 54c | 158.63$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.66 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76d3…7034backed Inner Circle | 66c | 152.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed AVULUS | 52c | 148.7$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.18 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Inner Circle | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Inner Circle | 52c | 145.03$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.53 | 168 | 35.7%60 W · 108 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed AVULUS | 15c | 141.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Inner Circle | 51c | 132.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.83 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Inner Circle | 53c | 132.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked AVULUS | 59c | 129.44$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…58fcbacked AVULUS | 55c | 128.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Inner Circle | 52c | 120$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd4…4502backed AVULUS | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6438…255bbacked Inner Circle | 73c | 107.81$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed AVULUS | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc46…a7ecbacked Inner Circle | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed AVULUS | 49c | 98.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed AVULUS | 52c | 94.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…196fbacked AVULUS | 55c | 91.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed AVULUS | 56c | 83.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…078abacked AVULUS | 37c | 78.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed AVULUS | 30c | 77.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bd…4dacbacked Inner Circle | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed AVULUS | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Inner Circle | 48c | 69.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs AVULUS (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs AVULUS - Game 1 WinnerInner Circle won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs AVULUS - Game 2 WinnerAVULUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.