TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Inner Circle vs AVULUS (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Inner Circleof Inner Circle, AVULUS
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$85,736
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$100,838

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,736 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf1d4…38d6backed AVULUS2c5,744$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.38156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-77.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd604…ee57backed AVULUS53c3,487$1,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,843.792142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked AVULUS41c3,242$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32073841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked AVULUS50c3,037$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.6355157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97f2…d84fbacked Inner Circle47c2,698$1,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,435.137746.8%36 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae17…b10dbacked Inner Circle59c2,266$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.391957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Inner Circle47c2,128$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.6119148.7%93 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08bc…f368backed AVULUS49c2,031$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Inner Circle49c1,792$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.791,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed Inner Circle51c1,752$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.612142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef4c…0d07backed AVULUS49c1,536$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe092…477cbacked Inner Circle65c1,504$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.95650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed AVULUS48c1,479$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.1917651.1%90 W · 86 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1dbb…050cbacked AVULUS56c1,246$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.51346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb76f…8536backed AVULUS57c1,166$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.132065%13 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+48.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed Inner Circle48c1,143$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.8725444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb9f…5764backed Inner Circle51c1,110$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x241a…eb06backed AVULUS49c1,110$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6895…6e89backed Inner Circle50c1,100$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd329…514fbacked AVULUS50c1,100$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b49…9c03backed AVULUS46c1,060$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.6475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x455e…1fcfbacked AVULUS46c1,050$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Inner Circle54c1,000$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.3620642.2%87 W · 119 L-0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62f2…07f8backed AVULUS56c805.36$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.8714253.5%76 W · 66 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9199…faa5backed Inner Circle51c770$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a43…4e6bbacked Inner Circle51c766$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked AVULUS35c706.9$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9211145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Inner Circle51c703.88$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.2979341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9c3…fcfcbacked Inner Circle51c688$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb375…0788backed Inner Circle51c677$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5bc…72dcbacked Inner Circle51c666$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Inner Circle63c657.02$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.5630138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Inner Circle51c650$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.4866662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe5af…e4debacked Inner Circle54c650$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cdf…1d29backed AVULUS58c625.2$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.991631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Inner Circle52c575.86$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.8647660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed Inner Circle74c568.8$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.3414661%89 W · 57 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92f4…b7bbbacked Inner Circle54c560$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Inner Circle56c544.36$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.0536054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0e0…68a8backed AVULUS57c506.77$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93e0…9f02backed Inner Circle54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed AVULUS33c419.52$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.8640014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed AVULUS10c401.48$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.626169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed AVULUS24c400$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9665625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed9d…517dbacked Inner Circle54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+41.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb39…129fbacked AVULUS5c393.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed AVULUS23c363.02$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.931,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe625…94c0backed Inner Circle57c351.4$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.43348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked AVULUS59c346.51$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.1461057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa824…c9fcbacked Inner Circle51c344.77$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.7718053.3%96 W · 84 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed AVULUS59c338.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-51.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd9b8…50d8backed Inner Circle74c336.65$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.793943.6%17 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3d…e051backed AVULUS6c330$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9306.7%2 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-67.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60b4…6313backed Inner Circle64c326.44$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.9816160.2%97 W · 64 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked Inner Circle62c321.09$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.0923546.8%110 W · 125 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed Inner Circle63c286.59$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.599045.6%41 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed AVULUS51c274.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.2557455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b9…948abacked Inner Circle73c273.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.99785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick63cpaid+29%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x20b2…f114backed AVULUS25c261.6$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.415131.8%48 W · 103 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Inner Circle51c257.91$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.9172154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00e0…8a94backed Inner Circle78c257.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.691030%3 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick56cpaid-60.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked AVULUS34c239.84$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.357231.9%23 W · 49 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed AVULUS44c238$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.7254753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d79…899abacked Inner Circle47c230.08$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.941136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed AVULUS39c221.82$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1613827.5%38 W · 100 L-15.0wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-50.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd15e…db59backed AVULUS51c220.77$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3311845.8%54 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x730e…fca0backed AVULUS40c210$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5520535.1%72 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda12…38d6backed Inner Circle51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985060%30 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8307…ad90backed AVULUS7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14319.7%3 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed AVULUS58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11653757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x762d…45a6backed AVULUS52c195$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.49955.6%55 W · 44 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4946…e041backed AVULUS58c179.31$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10455561.8%343 W · 212 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked AVULUS56c177.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10069835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed AVULUS57c174.33$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5548352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2489…60f1backed Inner Circle60c166.3$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.83633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ee5…ca6bbacked AVULUS56c161.33$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.541040%4 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-32.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x81a4…da1fbacked AVULUS54c158.63$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.665837.9%22 W · 36 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x76d3…7034backed Inner Circle66c152.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.421266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed AVULUS52c148.7$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1852243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Inner Circle51c147.06$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.06616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-67.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Inner Circle52c145.03$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.5316835.7%60 W · 108 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed AVULUS15c141.05$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.851145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+44.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Inner Circle51c132.92$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.833351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Inner Circle53c132.77$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.314940.9%61 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc7c…3d8cbacked AVULUS59c129.44$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.591457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1d…58fcbacked AVULUS55c128.19$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712650%13 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ada…43b0backed Inner Circle52c120$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.252441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cd4…4502backed AVULUS27c120$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6438…255bbacked Inner Circle73c107.81$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.112657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed AVULUS15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1579343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc46…a7ecbacked Inner Circle53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d31…07b0backed AVULUS49c98.43$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4825255.2%139 W · 113 L+1.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed AVULUS52c94.93$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3647748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a89…196fbacked AVULUS55c91.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.86450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83d0…c927backed AVULUS56c83.92$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.63743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b05…078abacked AVULUS37c78.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294348.8%21 W · 22 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb27…8be8backed AVULUS30c77.11$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2318248.4%88 W · 94 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9bd…4dacbacked Inner Circle50c75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.53145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc85d…6832backed AVULUS48c70$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.712438.7%48 W · 76 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Inner Circle48c69.97$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4995841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.