Bundesliga · resolved market
SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x584d0e788834f54618a9cceac3c8f29031e8c98cfbcdcc07a9b70921c9e46cf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,393 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 9,722$3,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,457.18 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 38c | 1,931$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.8 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 58c | 1,589$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.25 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 13c | 1,565$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.52 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 57c | 1,139$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.41 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 37c | 700$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 63c | 695$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.15 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 500.45$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 54c | 461$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.94 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 50c | 400.94$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfff…cbddbacked Over | 66c | 378.82$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Under | 15c | 351.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.18 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 52c | 338.77$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.33 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 68c | 238$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.84 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked Over | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 66c | 190.41$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa18f…073fbacked Over | 57c | 175.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…adddbacked Over | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 41c | 140$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over | 25c | 138.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Over | 55c | 118.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4cac…1695backed Under | 44c | 115$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 74c | 107.02$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 43c | 104.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 39c | 90.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…af03backed Over | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…4e3dbacked Under | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 73c | 65.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 53c | 52.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 28c | 50.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 22c | 49.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba2b…0c59backed Under | 53c | 47.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…378bbacked Over | 33c | 45.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 49c | 43.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0718…fccebacked Over | 38c | 34.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10cd…2da0backed Under | 47c | 30.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 72c | 30.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 58c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…c56dbacked Under | 51c | 21.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5this page
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.