Bundesliga · resolved market
SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd1cc6a86bf17a0f9201f1f3557ca23e5cdd265957c0345541a9663749b379c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,508 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 11,441$6,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,736.64 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Over | 44c | 11,366$5,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000.85 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 56c | 2,763$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.9 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 41c | 2,457$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.25 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 30c | 1,162$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.79 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 63c | 1,072$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.26 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…c97cbacked Over | 45c | 600$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 59c | 600$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 57c | 454.08$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.37 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 30c | 367.1$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.13 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0622…cbc0backed Over | 42c | 245.47$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x084e…71d6backed Over | 45c | 222.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 58c | 172.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.97 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 12c | 149.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 43c | 140.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…596dbacked Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 57c | 95.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 63c | 83.28$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 58c | 82.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 61c | 74.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 42c | 70.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe285…5754backed Under | 58c | 62.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf6…4eaabacked Under | 58c | 62.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc4…3b29backed Under | 58c | 61.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e1…d473backed Under | 58c | 58.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba2b…0c59backed Under | 63c | 55.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 68c | 45.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 74c | 44.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Under | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…54f0backed Under | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…0a40backed Over | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 59c | 39.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 59c | 37.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…a698backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 59c | 24.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10cd…2da0backed Under | 66c | 15.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5this page
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5Under won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.