Bundesliga · resolved market
SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75ac2f4f237c33611dbf70ab2705cfe25f6c32ec103d5f3bfb7662b5ef3bc639
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,039 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 9,978$6,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,893.41 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c45…0ac6backed Over | 32c | 5,927$1,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,885 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 3,808$1,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,902.48 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 33c | 2,299$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,536.72 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 63c | 2,274$1,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.73 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 44c | 1,476$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.23 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 63c | 920.29$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.78 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Over | 65c | 918.25$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 13c | 900$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 42c | 858.77$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.54 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 65c | 749.37$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.76 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked Over | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 69c | 727.42$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed Over | 34c | 700$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 58c | 588$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.04 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfff…cbddbacked Over | 68c | 488.4$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…c97cbacked Over | 65c | 400$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 61c | 389.7$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.55 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 72c | 370.78$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.78 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 65c | 339.63$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.83 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Over | 63c | 332.52$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 43c | 330.44$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.44 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 54c | 309.86$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.82 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 65c | 231.54$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked Over | 38c | 210.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…5a75backed Over | 65c | 194.59$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…4ea1backed Over | 36c | 163.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 65c | 154.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 34c | 124.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 34c | 124.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd88d…f708backed Over | 43c | 120.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 35c | 107.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…c06dbacked Over | 51c | 98.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba2b…0c59backed Under | 59c | 93.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 37c | 77.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…1977backed Under | 35c | 68.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 35c | 66.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 34c | 64.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…1618backed Under | 35c | 63.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8b…8925backed Under | 35c | 62.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +129.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 34c | 62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 65c | 50.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…5f43backed Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 37c | 43.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 47c | 42.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 75c | 38.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 65c | 30.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…dddfbacked Under | 37c | 29.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1a…5cb5backed Over | 65c | 27.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df7…3886backed Under | 38c | 27.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf232…4fc6backed Under | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6808…148cbacked Over | 65c | 24.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 73c | 23.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 51c | 20.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Over | 62c | 19.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10cd…2da0backed Under | 63c | 18.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5this page
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5Under won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.