Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Nova Esports vs Paper Rex (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58a19e744a08115f91983c802202deb0e23e2c8b4e3f309f6437b129c7506c90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paper Rexof Nova Esports, Paper Rex
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69db…283abacked Nova Esports | 18c | 3,256$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 361 | 38.5%139 W · 222 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Paper Rex | 75c | 2,711$2,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.28 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nova Esports | 19c | 2,651$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.93 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9de…5fb1backed Nova Esports | 1c | 999.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…76ebbacked Nova Esports | 24c | 834.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 297 | 33.3%99 W · 198 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Paper Rex | 80c | 784.22$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.84 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…13bfbacked Nova Esports | 20c | 751.54$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Nova Esports | 25c | 640$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.85 | 796 | 50%398 W · 398 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Nova Esports | 9c | 618.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 220 | 18.2%40 W · 180 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Nova Esports | 18c | 600.44$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.11 | 312 | 32.7%102 W · 210 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Nova Esports | 20c | 577.46$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.49 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Nova Esports | 15c | 537.48$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Nova Esports | 13c | 531.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Paper Rex | 79c | 510.51$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.47 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Nova Esports | 13c | 458$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…349fbacked Paper Rex | 80c | 422.59$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a9…ad8bbacked Nova Esports | 14c | 360$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Nova Esports | 22c | 333.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 395 | 45.8%181 W · 214 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Nova Esports | 5c | 260.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…b788backed Nova Esports | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1a69backed Nova Esports | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x192b…709fbacked Nova Esports | 18c | 170.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9801…1ab6backed Nova Esports | 19c | 162.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Paper Rex | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Nova Esports | 15c | 133.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Paper Rex | 78c | 129.49$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -68%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…e8f5backed Paper Rex | 80c | 117.5$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…f6b4backed Nova Esports | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Paper Rex | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Nova Esports | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 308 | 28.2%87 W · 221 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…837bbacked Nova Esports | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7799…496bbacked Nova Esports | 21c | 93.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb079…a1ccbacked Nova Esports | 23c | 86.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Nova Esports | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Nova Esports | 17c | 69.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 183 | 3.3%6 W · 177 L | -73.1wins | -0.40per pick | 43cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 11-0.35 edge/pick |
| 0xb930…beb1backed Nova Esports | 21c | 53.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…0b75backed Paper Rex | 76c | 52.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Paper Rex | 77c | 32.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf47…d041backed Paper Rex | 79c | 25.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ab…5191backed Paper Rex | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Paper Rex | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.