Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58b510ba96f07f8418ae92349ddd8f58d260c4d8fb775b5577b82bfcc0966af0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 7c | 445.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 46c | 400$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.55 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 267.06$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 190.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 9c | 170$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 61c | 160$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.67 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 144.74$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 40c | 130.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 41c | 129.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 18c | 127.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 119.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 118.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 22c | 112.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed No | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 57c | 89.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 45c | 81.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 75.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 48c | 69.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf722…4e1ebacked No | 55c | 69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 38c | 52.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 48.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 49c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 32c | 46.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 54c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…14e8backed No | 55c | 43.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed Yes | 40c | 36.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 47c | 35.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 58c | 35.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 74c | 26.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 70c | 20.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 73c | 15.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 73c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…c430backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.