Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58b9f9c674cef233d9a6b72be280a957a382f3115159c654244184798d287493
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 53c | 775.7$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.95 | 1,464 | 58.5%857 W · 607 L | +71.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…66f8backed No | 69c | 514.64$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 359.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 47c | 321.32$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.07 | 377 | 56.2%212 W · 165 L | +30.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 70c | 303.57$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.32 | 681 | 50.5%344 W · 337 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 298.26$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.55 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 293.37$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.08 | 1,829 | 42.6%780 W · 1,049 L | +51.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 274.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 228.85$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.12 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 56c | 222.81$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.48 | 4,665 | 26.6%1,242 W · 3,423 L | +65.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 60c | 165.64$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed No | 50c | 139.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed05…9368backed No | 19c | 137.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 52c | 133.44$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 131.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.65 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 51c | 124.28$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…431fbacked Yes | 50c | 123.15$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.67 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 45c | 118.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 45c | 106.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…e7b8backed Yes | 73c | 94.64$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 76c | 89.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 47c | 79.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 54c | 73.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 70.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa061…2c51backed No | 68c | 66.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 60c | 64.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…c0c1backed Yes | 62c | 62.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 53c | 60.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 49c | 59.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 40c | 58.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3a…55c4backed No | 20c | 57.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 37c | 56.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 55.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 49c | 50.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,028 | 31.3%949 W · 2,079 L | +40.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 66c | 48.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 458 | 62%284 W · 174 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 64c | 43.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 58c | 42.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked No | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb30…0e23backed No | 39c | 40.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked No | 66c | 39.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 53c | 38.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 36c | 37.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 47c | 34.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 37c | 33.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 51c | 31.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 431 | 43.9%189 W · 242 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 39c | 29.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 63c | 28.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 40c | 25.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 664 | 43.5%289 W · 375 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 60c | 25.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…cef2backed Yes | 41c | 24.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…9f60backed Yes | 49c | 23.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed Yes | 51c | 21.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 67c | 16.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 79°F or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.