Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa484dda736de5634aa2c57cc7447cca05e4d9d243b9ccd31605642d6d7094039
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,167$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed05…9368backed Yes | 25c | 962.4$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.77 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 40c | 693.81$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.37 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 69c | 553.73$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.73 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 381.2$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 41c | 234.34$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.67 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 228.61$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 218.3$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 60c | 147.78$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 56c | 119.17$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 32c | 96.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed Yes | 41c | 89.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 71c | 79.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 78.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4c…bc84backed No | 60c | 73.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 40c | 73.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…431fbacked No | 50c | 66.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 66.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa565…615abacked Yes | 36c | 65.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 51c | 64.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 42c | 60.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 36c | 58.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 50c | 57.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 61c | 54.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 45c | 52.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 38c | 50.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 61c | 47.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed No | 59c | 45.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 36c | 43.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 63c | 38.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 43c | 33.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 52c | 30.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…e7b8backed Yes | 64c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 65c | 29.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 28.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 56c | 25.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…435ebacked No | 61c | 23.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 22.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 61c | 19.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f93…07b1backed No | 59c | 19.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked No | 55c | 19.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 67c | 15.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6892…fcd6backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 78c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…66cdbacked No | 72c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 79°F or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.