Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58bc5e9ecd8cafcc4e292881d3bd3bb6bd47ac84345a80301827ed199d03a375
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 6,944$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f55…8ddfbacked No | 1c | 6,718$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec05…75dbbacked No | 1c | 4,499$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6549…2c7dbacked No | 1c | 3,465$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…bcf1backed No | 1c | 1,804$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 7c | 1,050$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 1c | 948.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf757…8168backed No | 5c | 900.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 5c | 499.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…2992backed Yes | 25c | 426.03$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.39 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 58c | 396.37$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.97 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 53c | 303.55$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.19 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…28b8backed No | 6c | 246.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 19c | 216.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5130…818bbacked No | 7c | 191.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -52%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked No | 9c | 166.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 74c | 156.86$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 49c | 152.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 27c | 149.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.1 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 140.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc906…3b88backed No | 59c | 133.37$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 53c | 99.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 37c | 98.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 52c | 97.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 61c | 92.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…7318backed Yes | 21c | 88.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.77 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…57bfbacked No | 60c | 80.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 77.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 76.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…67b0backed No | 56c | 76.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 71.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 68c | 71.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 48c | 70.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 70c | 68.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 53c | 64.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd384…130ebacked Yes | 26c | 64.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 59.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ed…88a2backed Yes | 31c | 59.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 61c | 59.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 58.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 38c | 56.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 44c | 52.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 54c | 51.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 46c | 51.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 54c | 48.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 45.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 43.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…bfabbacked No | 52c | 43.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 67cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 39c | 41.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 61c | 39.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 79c | 38.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed Yes | 33c | 37.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 51c | 36.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4c77…ff72backed Yes | 46c | 30.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 49c | 30.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…6e24backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 28.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5d…adc4backed Yes | 50c | 27.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 65c | 25.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 54c | 19.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.