Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa30dffbfbe424fb6b015c92d599f43dfff5894150feb6a12e24a46c4e3690843
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 30c | 1,435$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.81 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 1,222$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 75c | 1,037$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.39 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8c…f5e2backed Yes | 44c | 860.35$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.42 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…c916backed No | 69c | 711.96$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.09 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 79c | 402.88$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 75c | 243.02$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd011…0b65backed No | 72c | 229.12$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 71c | 226.86$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 7c | 199.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 72c | 195.93$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…465cbacked Yes | 26c | 188.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 182.52$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…57bfbacked Yes | 39c | 171.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 30c | 153.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…afecbacked Yes | 22c | 152.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 149.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 147.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 38c | 142$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.33 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 136.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 11c | 135.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f4…be6abacked Yes | 31c | 121.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 118.7$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 34c | 111.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed No | 71c | 104.01$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 53c | 96.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 24c | 95.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…5571backed Yes | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 28c | 88.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 54c | 85.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes | 13c | 80.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa5…92aebacked Yes | 16c | 76.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 58c | 75.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 68c | 70.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…31a3backed No | 72c | 67.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 36c | 64.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa79e…8f81backed Yes | 30c | 61.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 31c | 57.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 69c | 53.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 62c | 48.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 71c | 46.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 43c | 45.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…6b9cbacked Yes | 50c | 42.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 71c | 42.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2584…030abacked Yes | 30c | 41.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 46c | 40.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…506bbacked Yes | 26c | 39.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…ae25backed No | 69c | 39.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 38.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 70c | 38.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 72c | 38.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 62c | 34.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 75c | 34.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 56c | 34.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked Yes | 33c | 30.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ed…d51bbacked Yes | 44c | 29.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…0a7ebacked No | 72c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 53c | 26.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 72c | 26.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 23.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da0…05c8backed No | 59c | 19.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 79c | 18.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…2691backed No | 72c | 17.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 17.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…17a6backed No | 63c | 16.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ca…f208backed No | 66c | 15.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.