Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85ff350a6f870d8e37fd7d7630b7d086236934df088f0be6f8b7d63adbfd65ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 619.91$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 10c | 595.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 449.68$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.96 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 3c | 346.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 325.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 296.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 73c | 267.54$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 8c | 235.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 207.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 7c | 198.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 153.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 19c | 122.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce63…3ebdbacked Yes | 21c | 83.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 25c | 82.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 21c | 78.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 72.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 56.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 25c | 50.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89e…cf92backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…af19backed Yes | 30c | 46.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 74c | 46.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 29c | 45.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…3b41backed Yes | 29c | 44.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 71c | 42.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 27c | 38.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed Yes | 30c | 37.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 71c | 34.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 78c | 32.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 70c | 32.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 72c | 30.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…b989backed No | 71c | 20.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcc…788cbacked No | 69c | 19.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 71c | 17.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 76c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 78c | 15.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26d…10dfbacked No | 70c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf137…a1c1backed No | 73c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.